Friday, February 28, 2025

COMMENTS: The truth about China's economy. Chang Heng Chee: 28-02-2025

 

Don’t know why some people are so concerned about China’s economic state - all I know is, a really high percentage of stuff I use daily comes from China or made in China, including my environment (lighting, mobile comms eqpt, transport etc)
59
Wouldn't be the first time that the "west" is wrong.face-blue-smiling 1990. The Economist: China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist: China's economy will face a hard landing. 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. 2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think. 2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing. 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China. 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China. 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash. 2018. The Daily Reckoning: China's Coming Financial Meltdown. 2019. BBC: China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? 2020. New York Times: Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. 2021. Bloomberg: Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. 2022. Bloomberg: China Surprise Data Could Spell RECESSION. 2023. Bloomberg: No word should be off-limits to describe China's faltering economy.
Show less
68
China is a "huge" country with 30+ provinces, most are as big as other countries on population and economic growth. So, one or two of such provinces in trouble is no big deal. As a whole China is still moving forward relentlessly.
26
The size of China's economy is much bigger than what's mentioned here. The official exchange rate of 1 USD to 7.31 greatly distorts the true size of China's economy. China's total Gdp exceeded 130 trillion RMB in 2024. The real purchasing power of RMB can be seen in the comparison of prices of goods and services in China versus America. Also the costs of housing, education, utilities, public transportation, healthcare, insurance, infrastructure developments, AI projects, manufacturing, agricultural projects, poverty alleviation program, etc, etc The true purchasing of RMB should be much, much higher. Deepseek is a good example compared to American AI costing 100 times more! Therefore China's economy of 130 trillion RMB should be equivalent to 200-500 trillion US dollars economy! That's a gigantic economy unparalleled in human history!
Show less
62
To see how a country performs, look at the top leadership. If it is good, country will perform well, if it is excellent, country will surpassed all expectation. Singapore is a good example and China has performed exceptionally well. I have no doubt China will be the main driver of future world economy.
46
This is important: China is not "rising," rather China is being reborn. China is returning to its historical position as the dominant global influence both geopolitically and economically.
17
Prof Chan is using nominal GDP. If measured by PPP, the Chinese economy is much bigger than the US economy. It surpassed that of the US in 2014.
59
US and China should be friend and partner to build a better world for Humanity
21
Why would Ne Zha resonate overwhelmingly with Chinese audiences? Here are two emotionally powerful lines of sheer defiance from the highest-grossing Asian film: 1、我命由我不由天! 是魔是仙,我自己说了才算! I dictate my own life. Not God! Whether I am a demon or deity, I shall have the final word! 2、若前方无路,我便踏出一条路;若天地不容,我便扭转这乾坤! If there is no path before me, I shall clear a way through; if I am not accepted by Heaven and Earth, I shall upend this order!
Show less
Translate to English
34
Why Pro Chan assumed China is not peaceful rise? This is a shock. China 5,000 history can be studied. It is unlike West powers which rise based on expansion & colonialism. China is "Central Plain", it built walls even when it was the biggest superpower and didn't invaded & expanded to sustained its power. It was invaded by the Mongols & Manchus and assimilated them. Using West assumptions are clearly off tangent. China will not invade other nations. 9 dash lines were historic territories, in fact they retreated 10 & 11 lines. 8 West foreign powers & Japan had humiliated China. China still tries to grow peaceably with them. But surely, China will arm itself and stay strong so that it will not be bullied. The days of bullying & suppressing China is over. China reactions to USA bulling measures have been measured.
Show less
31
2nd tier cities in China are megacities with more than 20mil people 😂😂😂
30
China GDP growth 5% with 0.2% inflation in 2024. I’d be very happy if we had the same GDP and inflation here in USA.
12
She is no China scholar she was Singapore ambassador to USA for a while, her views of China is so what tainted with american propaganda, USA is on the decline, it was resilient because it attract the world talent,
17
This lady is talking nonsense when she says that Chinese economy is sliding down very rapidly. How then it compares with Europe or with US ???? The changes due to the investment that is internal made huge differences in urban development, roads, trains, ports, technology etc not to mention the external investments in Asia, Africa and South America.
28
China's story has been pretty amazing. A lot of US GDP also depends on Chinese Americans
13
Thank you Professor Chan Heng Chee face-green-smiling
23
West is extreme in its views but so is this channel
2
Shhh ... Sun-Tzu Art of War says, when the enemy is making mistakes ... leave him alone! 😂
10
First fundamental question --- what is the true GDP and population of China? $7 trillion & 900 million not $18 trillion & 1.4 billion
1
China still growing at 5.6 % .. She got it wrong or lying outright.
7
Professor, compare China's 5% growth and US 2.5% growth. Which country is having more problems. Compound that a few years, and then take a look at the numbers. So what are you trying to say?
10
I suspected she didn't come to China after COVID. The overall data / figures are based on USD to calculate the economic growth, as RMB has been dropped more than 10% over the past 2 years. It seems the China economy is doing quite bad, however, if you count on local currency, the economy is doing quite well with around 5% growth for the past 2 years. For the tier 1 cities comment, it's mainly due to the burst of the property bubble, since this single sector has impacted on 25-30% GDP, so it looks quite bad. If you look at macro economy perspective, the volume of export and domestic economy has steady growth. I think what she said is only from a narrow perspective, mostly from the figures / reports from US / UK. If you totally trusted the reports from US/UK media, it's very dangerous. I suggest she shall come to China to experience what she saw and read more reports from different perspective to make her view more neutral.
Show less
7
All economies have their ups and downs. Why should China be the exception? However, China's "down" in the last few years is not a reason for concern. There are two reasons for this. First, no economy can sustain high growth indefinitely. As an economy matures, it must eventually slow down. China now has the second largest economy in the world, and the largest by purchasing power parity. So even 4-5% growth is remarkable. Second, the IMF forecasts 4.6% growth this year and 4.5% growth next year. These numbers are much higher than those for the G7 economies. So what are critics going on about?
Show less
7
GDP % argument is so shallow, you forgot all other markets growing Brazil, India, PH, Indo, VN etc.
1
China is doing very well . Just leave if u want to take your companies elsewhere.
4
Thanks!
4
As l have always stated The Chinese people have always been able to rise to the occassion They have adapted and adopted the basics of and the basis for rapid unmatched unrivalled and unbeatable socio economic development of their nation.
7
Why waste precious time to respond to the dumb the Western media? It's akin to play rock and roll to the range bisons; a total waste of time. 😂😂😂😂
9
it would be super helpful if you include in the description when this talk was done, this can help with seeing how views have changed over time
Asian unity is important. India should cooperate, and then Asia would be united ! But us is playing a game with india, and they never understood so far
11
Xu Jiayin Wang Jianlin are both very upbeat with China's economy. They will loan more money to build more properties. Invest guys.
This lady came to the stage unprepared, what a waste of time and disrespect for the audience!
3
Like all things and reading comments following this video. Thank you. This is very interesting and I wish good health, happiness and well being to all citizens of this world. At the end of the day, regardless of our personal ambitions of power or wealth, we as a collective species need to put aside our antiquated ideas and start thinking with by a new perspective. We can not solve our problems with the same mind and thinking that created them.
3
Interesting analysis of the difference between Tier 1 and 2 and 3 cities.
China appears formidable due to its population of 1.4 billion. In reality, it has a per capita income at the world average and remains a relatively poor country, with a total debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 300%.
Chinese people are hard working ....that's how it is .....thier parents always want their kids to do their best ...that's why China is what it is today .......and with the govt helping their population growth ....you can see why the economy is growing up so well ....when you don't have to thinks about when you have to look for your next meal ......
Prof Chiam is a great Singapore intellect who is also wise n upright. Thank you ,Prof.
5
She only sad ‘American said that, Europeans sad that and so on. Not even one truly analysis she had made, what a shame.
4
The Do nothing and win strategy 😂
Napoleon said China is a sleeping giant. Let it sleep for once awaken it will shake the earth! Btw is it "Never Forseen" or "Forsaw"?
11
Sleeping Beauty VS Sleeping Giant
She should use PPP instead of norminal GDP. PPP is better becis it did not take into account currency exchange rate.
You never stay in a big family. A family with 30 family members, 4 generation in a big family. See from outside, you can see a big house, a lot cars, a big business. In fact, why they are big, because all combined.
Who is this traitor?
1
A very unintellectual presentation which is mainly repeating the messages from western unreliable media on China matters. Professor Chan Heng Chee’s analysis of China in her speech, while engaging, appears heavily reliant on narratives frequently circulated in Western media outlets. A more nuanced approach—incorporating diverse perspectives, including Chinese scholarly discourse, primary sources, or regional viewpoints—might have enriched the presentation. Critical issues involving China often require transcending polarized narratives to foster a balanced understanding grounded in direct engagement with the country’s policies, historical context, and domestic complexities. Greater attention to these dimensions could elevate the discourse and avoid inadvertently echoing oversimplified frameworks.
Show less
I'm shocks finally you talk with facts instead of mentioning Xinjiang genocide and questioning China about it.
7
how come no one (dare to) is linking anything with the drop due to covid and the economic warfare from the western countries.
1
Are there any or enough or many European Investors momentarily in China? Or is China thinking of encouraging Europe to work alongside her vis a vis economic growth AND Vice -Versa Im thinking huge corporate Students (exchange) Technology Medicine Infrastructure Transport Architecture Engineering Languages If the answer to my questions is a YES then I do hope that China and Europe will not hesitate to work closely alongside AND with each other China and Europe need each other to make the world economy to bloom successfully and they can learn from each other AND inspire each other I think the IDEA ALONE is not a feverish one Both China and Europe will greatly surprise each other with their vast expertise and skills I am looking forward to this possibility with great enthusiasm Please therefore arrange to get to the Round Table as soon as possible With best wishes meanwhile Yours sincerely
Show less
1
Her conclusion is wrong, the influence of her imaginery third space will be quite insignificant. And she totally didn't consider Russia as the third reentry political player with great influence. Because Singapore has little connection, limited knowledge of real Russia.
this lady has an US brain 😂
Investors rely on government issued currency to stay solvent Somehow, the entire world needs to stop making heroes out of investors
I'm so surprised that she sees the things so shallow as an expert. I suggest she go to live in the tier 2, 3 or 4 cities, which ever she wants to, for a couple of months, then she would get the opposite conclusion. Don't just read those unreliable datas, so ridiculous.
China’s phenomenal economic and technological progress after WTO is by virtue of “standing on the shoulders of giants”, a fact that cannot be denied or trifled albeit the successful assembly of C919 using western technology and imported hardware including advanced semiconductor chips. 40 years after Deng’s opening up, China under XiJinping Is regressing into Mao’s era of centralised economy and political oppression. Had LKY been around to witness what has happened last decade in China, his projection would have been very different, more so given the geopolitical shift caused by the CCP’s hegemonic ambition and wolf-like diplomacy. Now that the revival of Western conservatism and rising anti-Communist sentiment are advocating the dismantling of globalization and decoupling from Chinese supply chain, the West is not getting it wrong with China but doing it right for their own interests.
Show less
once the buying stop the export will stop....let see what will happen once the coming global economic reset kick in likely from 2026 to 2028...
2
Didn’t she realized U.S and China having fears trade war? O.k, I know she don’t have time😂
They always wrong thire think know everything ,don't worry what they said etc.
She is analyzing China from tabloid deadlines and has no access to on-the-ground current information. Research data is stale and lacks context.
😂are you hallucinating...stop harassing philippines
Chinawoman talking about China
Everyone loves china,s growth and rise .....its the military threat,which bothers,most probably.growth of china is the least requirement for global growth,afterall,its 1.5 billion people❤❤😊😊ai,ai.ni hao.😊😊
5
"We hear about , we read , people say, have some data"....is there any first hand experience on the ground connecing wirh real Chinese people and their life? 😂
Professor should take a break, maybe she very tired, can't think well.
Not heard of her before but this is the most unprepared, ill informed, unvisionary, lacklustre lecture I have ever heard from LKY school. 👎👎 Better reading NY Times.
Wishful thinking is not a substitute for forecasting, and this is especially so in a website dedicated to propaganda masquerading as scholarship. As the bard said: Methinks the lady doeth protest too much, and this lady certainly does... Iow, she's preaching to the choir...
This is a CCP ambition to slicing the world order: 1. In 2001, China entered WTO with accelerating China’s economic reform, and reconciling the china’s communist command economy with global trading rules, helping hundred of millions of Chinese people escape poverty. 2. In 2009, China with Russia and India and South Africa (2014) established the BRICS ditching the US dollars, latter many countries joined in. 3. In 2013, China has built one road one belt initiative connecting trade to 150 countries, including investment in roads and bridges….. 4. In 2019, CCP declared nine dashes line in South China Sea encompassing 90% of three millions square of km, make Philippine, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brunei contested. 5. In 2022, china and Solomon Islands signed a security agreement, China seeks access to ports and rebuild a military and ship just 2400 miles south west of Hawaii. Also Promise to other pacific island nation a, including some in FIJI and Naru for marine traffics. What the hell on earth one has the right mind to do business with China. What happened today is what happened in the past, that why the President Trump has to take any measurements to stop China dominance the world order.
Show less
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 385K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% annually in dividend returns. any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated..
1
Forget about GDP. Look at the fertility rate if you want to see the real economic state of a country - when young people can trust the future and have enough money for a home and a family then it is a great country. ATM only 3rd world countries produce off-spring in numbers because they don't care about anything. The developed world is dying out including China, so regardless of their GDP they truly are in a downward spiral. Within 10 years there won't be enough people to keep society going (roads, schools, food production, police, factories) at the level it is now.
Show less
1
Yes China can build commercial aeroplanes but it still does have a complete eco sytem for it. For example it depends on the US for the engine.
2
And the c919 carnt do a round trip thier aircraft carriers are shit
"You just the C191 ... With western parts .. sure ... But you don´t see it ^^
3
Population growing in Wuhan 😂😂😂😂😂
That plane was taken out of service
2
Prof Heng Chinese economy is really in a huge mess with massive bankruptcies and depression and sosietal divorces and family break up. What is happening in China? Property prices have collapsed whole sale and nightmares.
1
Everyone i know who bought a home in the last 10 years are now under water. Common prosperity is working so well 😂😂😂
5
Worst propaganda, why china doesn't have war? China had so many wars, it wrote war for dummies 😂😂😂😂😂
I love propaganda
2
stop lying to us
PLA navy sailing in Australian water doing live fire. Peaceful, they say, 😂😂😂😂😂
7
Liquidity has collapsed in China Public has no accesx to credit The retail sector has collapsed Only a fool would believe all is well 😂😂😂😂
4
Only Asian people can understand Asia problems

No comments:

Post a Comment