Friday, November 15, 2024

PASCAL: Could China fail. Will China collapse: COMMENTS: Fri 15-11-2024

 

Could China fail? Will China Collapse?

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Could China fail? #chinasnewnormal TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Could China Fail? This claim has been made for past 30 years, so why has China’s bubble never popped? 01:55 There are 3 main themes about China’s collapse: 1. Systemic risk 2. Societal risk and 3. Matters of survival 04:07 SYSTEMIC RISK There are four main themes: 1. Communist party of China 2. Debt of China 3. Growth Decline 4. Bubbles. 04:17 Communist party of China. Is China rigid or the country that has been reforming and changing more than any other country. Is the CPC decentralized or centralized 06:49 Debt of China. Debt of China is high, but much based on domestic saving, which is better manageable. The biggest risk is local government debt where sale of land is decline. 09:45 Growth decline. China will slowdown in GDP growth, but as China is the second largest economy and that means that China will continue to add more to its economy than any other country in the world. Consumption will solve the growth decline over time as Chinese start spending more instead of saving. 12:45 Real-Estate bubbles. China will not head into a financial crisis because of the bubbles because China has more instruments to manage their bubbles. 16:11SOCIETAL RISKS There are four main themes: 1. Environment 2. Demography 3. Productivity 4. Middle-Income Trap 17:13 Environment China is the biggest polluter in the world, but also the biggest investor in renewable energy capacity in products and connectivity on the grid. This is a bigger opportunity than it is a problem 19:30 Demography China’s population is shrinking and as factory of the world, this is a huge challenge for the future of China. The opportunity lies in the triggering of social reforms, innovation and raising the productivity to deal with the demography issue. 22:02 Productivity The productivity in China is much lower than the Western world. But this is a huge opportunity as China wants to educate their citizens to increase the value each worker and add more robots and automation, which they are doing faster than the Western countries. 24:41 Middle-Income Trap China could be stuck in middle Income trap, which is been claimed for decades. In 2023, China will reach the high-country status. This issue is less of an issue as millions of people are joining the middle class every year now 28:00 SURVIVAL RISKS There are four main themes: 1. Unemployment 2. Taiwan 3. Resources 4. Tech War 29:12 UNEMPLOYMENT This is in my view the biggest risk for China to continue China’s growth. Unless they contribute to the value of society this could derail China. Only by opening China’s markets further, this will not be simple to resolve. 32:13 The red line: Taiwan A war in Taiwan is unlikely, but an incident could happen. Especially in 2024 with the election in Taiwan and in US, the Taiwanese independence will become a campaign topic. That is dangerous as it could spark the tensions even more. 34:46 Resources: Water, Food and Energy China needs to become more self-sufficient on these 3 resources. China however needs to work with the world to resolve these matters, and therefore their cooperation with the global South on trade of resources in exchange for products and innovation from China. 37:12 Tech Wars. Biden’s Chip & Science act has created a direct tech war. This has created a change from China becoming the leader in innovation. More about this can be found on my monthly newsletter. Do subscribe on my website for it www.pascalcoppens.com Website: https://www.pascalcoppens.com/ ABOUT PASCAL COPPENS: Website: http://www.pascalcoppens.com Linkedin:   / pacovision   Youtube channel:    / pascalcoppens   BOOK - CHINA's NEW NORMAL http://www.pascalcoppens.com/shop

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Pascal Coppens

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1,821 Comments

Eng Lam Yeo
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Pascal, Gordan Chang is correct. China had collapse - poverty had collapse and 800 million people had left poverty; automobiles is collapsing as the EV had destroyed the car industry; GDP had collapse from 14% growth when GDP was 1 trillion to current 5% growth of the current GDP of 18 trillion. The BRI had collapse and 140 countries are in it. USA is growing extremely well from the previous debt of 12 trillion to the current debt of 31.4 trillion - great growth. Homeless had grown extremely well in LA, Washington DC and California at a great pace. Germany's economy is great and Britain growth is great in the negative territory. USA and Western countries should be happy because China had collapse 20 years ago.
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One famous adage “you can change system but you can NOT change party in China, whilst you can change party but can NOT change system in US”. This best explain how dynamic CPC is to meet Chinese insatiable demands in all directions and the secret is never hidden by CPC which is “never stop and never satisfy yourself in self-reform”. This can be further justified by the fact that CPC has approval rating over 90% amongst Chinese and still increasing by the years.
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Not a fan of Gordon Chang but people like him are playing the west for fools telling them what they want to hear for $$$
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China is a catalyst for global trade economic cooperation friendship. China is a blessing to the world. Well done 👍❤️🇨🇳
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The west has been pushing this collapse for decades.
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Incredible. Good talk!!!
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China has the smartest government that is thinking ahead, they are all about infrastructure and supply, it's the US that is in such massive debt that it can never be paid, the US is already bankrupt and by raising the debt ceiling they are putting the collapse off a few more years when it will be worse, then whilst it's beyond broke it's spending more on military spending when no one is threatening them, the only way out of the inevitable collapse is to start WW3 and we know they are always at war and will do it. The US military is the biggest threat to the world.
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All of this is what scares the American Capitalists!!! Instead of trying to coerce other countries to submit to The US, the American Capitalists refuse to change and adapt in a good way!!!
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Pascal, the naysayers have , for ages, been predicting that China is going to fail like a broken record spinning on a turntable. But you know what - none of them has proven to be right.
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Presidential Shi said only reunion peacefully with Taiwan. Not a forceful reunion with Taiwan.
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Chinese people are intelligent and kind as well. This soft power is more powerful than wars and bombs and this is why west hates China 🇨🇳❤️🙏
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US : bark doggie India : woof woof
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Why predicting a prosperous country to fail. A wishful thinking out of evil psyche. 😵‍💫
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99.999% of the people don't get China because a country of over 1B people almost 30 provinces, in a diplomatic environment of almost 200 countries is just a very very complex thing which nobody has any experience running. People who have visited China a couple of time talk expertly about it as if they know all the answers. The country is big, the challenges are also big in a way that ordinary people whose life experience is running a business of 1, 10 M or even over billion cannot comprehend. Do you think Tim Cook or Elon Musk can run China successfully ? But the fact is that China has been an enormous country with enormous challenges for many centuries and only the Chinese govt in Beijing and all the provinces know really what these problems are. And they are the only people who has any experience governing that. They are not going to appoint Jeffery Sacks and Larry Summers to tell them how to do it. Russia took their advise of shock therapy and see what happened to Russia in the 1990's. China always did it their way to marketise plus everrything else, and against all odds, against all foreign predictions of collapse, they came through so far. They must know something you and I don't.
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Those who are familiar with Chinese history know this: the Chinese people will accept humiliation, but they will not accept defeat. Those who suppress the Chinese people will be toppled.
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brilliant very precise and I agree
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I have heard something like what you say China was or is going to collapse or fail years and years ago , and there was someone he called himself an expert on China ( Gordon Chang ) ! Since Gordon Chang.said untill now there was and is nothing happened at all to China ! In contrast China is getting better , stronger and richer from day to day ! What I see today the propaganda of the West’s meanstream medias keep doing disinformation and lying about China ! They should remind themself that the more lies and disinfomation they do that is the more they lost or destroy themself and their reputation !
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In China, they have only one party to govern the entire country. In my country, we have only 1 man to control all our fates. LOL
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The Imperialists would love for China to be poor. They succeeded in enslaving Africa but their dream of completely enslaving Asia was not fulfilled. They project their deep desire outwards and latch on to anything that smells like doom...
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China seems like a country that operates using common sense and practical approaches
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The US trying hard to push every country in the world to adopt democratic system because of freedom. In actual fact, the only country that could enjoy such so-called “freedom” is US. Such freedoms include of meddling of other countries, causing regime change, assassinating leaders, plotting proxy wars, spreading fake news, spying, sanctioning and controlling of them, even on her own allies. As for Gordon Chang, he is just one of US’s little puppies barking around.
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Pascal, you know China very well. Your analyse is neutral, not like many Western people, bias.
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1989 Western Propaganda: Without democracy in China, No Development 2000s Western Propaganda: Without democracy, NO SUSTAINABLE development 2010s Western Propaganda: No country can experience indefinite economic growth, democracy is necessary to act as a safety valve when the economy slows... BLAH.. BLAH... BLAH
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Fair and thoughtful analysis from someone with actual China experience through living in China and looking at things without a tainted lens. Thank you for your contribution towards people’s better understanding.
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The main problems facing the Anglo Saxon and EU countries concerning about China is that they cannot fathom how China has developed their economies and the whole infrastructures and social reforms at such warp speed .. they have no comprehension and answers to all these phenomenon except to create barriers and hurdles ... to envy ..contain and demonize China ...their obsession with China has come to a point that if there is an iota or indication of any unfavorable events happening in China be it politically...socially ...economically or natural disaster they will jump on the bandwagon like making a mountain out of a molehill to create chaos and disinformation . It is so ironic that the Anglo Saxon and EU countries are now in a more worse and dire situation on their social. economic and debts problems than China and yet they enthusiastically focus their malign intentions against China disregarding their own impending disaster which is already at their doorstep...
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113
According to Gordon, China had consistently been failing every year for 2 decades!
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Penzai (pronounce bonsai in Japanese) is an ancient Chinese art traceable to the Tang Dynasty (618 to 907 AD). The Chinese word “penzai” literally means “tray planting.” It is the art of growing and depicting artistically formed trees, shrubs in miniature landscapes in small and often shallow trays. The art demands careful and precise controlling and pruning where the plant is slowly shaped to give the appearance of an older, mature tree. The ultimate goal is for the tree to finally take on a shape that resembles how the tree would look growing in nature. In order to achieve that desired effect, the bonsai master will at times allow the tree to flourish uncontrolled. At other times, he would use wires to control and shape its growth. If he exerts too much control, the tree dies. Lack of control, and the tree grows wild. It is through the act of balancing between allowing the tree to flourish and under controlled growth, he creates a master piece. The Chinese economic planners fully appreciate that laissez-faire economics theory — the dependence on the equilibrium of supply and demand to efficiently direct the production of goods and services — is a fallacy. If left alone and let the market do its own thing, the wealth gap would aggravate with no protection of the inalienable rights of the masses against the minority rich and powerful. Hence, certain key economic functions are retained in the hand of the state. The recent regulatory framework designed to rein in the unfettered power of internet giants is case in point. The result is — a more equitable and sustainable growth.
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If we use Purchasing Power Parity, the US has already been behind China for many years. Germany is in recession. Canada's GDP is zero in 2023. So, I highly doubt China's economy will collapse any time soon, especially since China has a 5,000-year long history.
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About the Chinese debt, I think I need to clarify something very important. We always talk about the debt, instead of asking where the money has gone. Chinese government uses the money to promote the infrastructures. There is a movement that our Chinese government improve the infrastructures even in the rural villages. Look at these rural villages, they have electricity, road of concrete, internet, clean water and so on. Of course, these projects are always not profitable. As a communist belief, the government is for the people, and everyone must share a modern society life. CCP also spends a lot of money to launch a project to move the rural villages inside the mountains to towns and cities. This project helps these people participate the development of whole society. As a comparison, how does the government of USA spend their money? The military and the war!
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Mr. PC, you are just awesome, Thanks for the info.
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Productivity will shift from workforce to artificial intelligence in the future and robot.
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According to the latest predictions from the world renown 'FAKE' China experts Peter Zeihan, China as a nation with 1.4 billion people will be extinct within the decade.
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Wow! China is incredible!
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Great video Pascal. You are right in every aspect of presentation. Truth prevails.
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Productivity based on physical goods produced or revenue derived are two different things. On a PPP basis, China is more productive than most of the western. And look at actual employment, China has the highest employment in the world against population. Although retirement is early for the Chinese but the elderlies continue to take up part time jobs such as sweeping the parks or engaged in small enterprises such as services in eateries which are often not taxed and not captured under GDP in any measure. Also the virtual GDP measured in the US by the stock market activities on Wall Street, whether it is real economic activity or just manipulating the stock price by buying your own share, China does not have very much of this. The Chinese invest more in productivity than stocks.
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You are absolutely right about next year the two elections will rise the stake like crazy. The worst case is some crazy hawk in the US and the DDP winning both elections, and like idiots start something so stupid they never anticipate would drag everyone in down a fiery hole. The best case is for KMT to win the election and people like ex-President Ma coming in and lowering the temperature on both sides. That said, what would happen if the US sees red and resorts to its old tricks of destabilizing a democratic elected government through coup or whatever. And if so what would be the PRC response? Yeah 2024, not going to be an easy year.
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Sorry to look naive, but i have a question about Gordon Chang. Why does he have so much hatred towards China and by extension to Chinese people? Though why he has so much hatred towards China? Does he need money? Some issue with his ego maybe??
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A bit like the collapse of North Korea, predicted by all the experts, which never happened. A nation that has survived very well for many decades.
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Absolutely, China failed. China's average personal income level have not exceed Luxembourg. GDP have not over pass USA. Air quality have not pass Sweden. Education have not pass Japan. Health care have not pass Belgium.
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As long as the communist holds power, China won't implode nor collapse. If China goes democracy and liberalization, China will collapse. But China is falling into the Middle Income Trap which is different from collapse.
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Many have forgotten (or rather not aware) that in the ancient times, China is an economic powerhouse. Even back then, China has been ruling the world’s commercial trade, until it lost its economic power (and regarded as sleeping giant). China has gained back its economic power by way of dictatorship combined with capitalism and slavery (one way or another) of its common citizens. The entire world has given China so much economic power (by taking advantage of its slave-like labour) that nowadays it’s not that easy to bring China down (just to fight the bullying of CCP). Yes, several big multinational entities have pulled out from China but they’ve been replaced by other global entities. A lot of things to discuss, could be endless discussions, but China won’t go down easily. And that is the situation thanks to all of us who patronage China’s manufacturing. In no time, China will take over the electric car maket. Every single industry will be taken over by China, because everything relies on China. I hate CCP as well, but China will remain relevant for many many years even if we start campaigning against Chinese goods now.
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Pascal, i think you forgot that the west is sanctioning China companies too and that is also reducing the GDP growth, but then China is still growing even with those new sanctions.
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If you think about it, the people who are pushing for the collapse of China are cold blooded af. Why would you want to see a country who suffered so much before 1945 and after 1945 collapse? The people in China right now are blooming like a beautiful flower, these people are prospering! Look at the vibrant cities, look at the happiness of the majority of the people, look how lively the streets of any cities in China are! A collapse will destroy billions of people, why would some people want to see that. Support peace, support positivity. 🍀💕
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The intent is to flood the consciousness of people so they can pounce and take advantage of the slightest problem. They know it's ridiculous but the intent is to put people in a state where their minds are ready to be told to attack China.
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Whatever this dude says, given the politics, it's best to leave China alone.
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Good analysis and fair comments. China as a nation, has been around for 4000+ years. There's very little that they haven't experienced or have not overcome to get to where they are today. Today's problems/issues are just variations of the good, the bad and the ugly of the past which they will overcome all the same. I bet that China will still be there when the new kids on the block like the juvenile terrorist rogue state Banana Republic of America (BRA), the EU and other such groupings have long broken up and disappeared into the history of time. Relax.
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121
China will never fail
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In 100 trillion years, when the universe collapses, every country on this planet will also collapse. And China is not an exception.
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Hello Pascal, thanks for another education; I concurred with you. China is one of many East Asia Pacific countries I used to travel during my work then. My first visit to China was in the late '70s, walking across the half concrete bridge (Hong Kong side) and half wooden bridge (China side) to have a first hand feel of China and met the Chinese there for the first time, then I was a curious tourist visiting Shen Zhen the so call "sleepy" fishing village. The people there then were not "sleeping" at all, they were very curious as I was, they give you the sense of value of life, they were enterprising, they were keen learner, they were hungry for information, least of all they don't waste any opportunity to do good. China had been one of the many countries I responsible then, I have to tell them to slow down to keep in pace with rest of the East Asian countries under my purview. It is without an iota of doubt that the Chinese owned to themselves for the success they had brought to their nation, their family and themselves. Most business deal with China have benefitted the same effects. It is in the Chinese DNA to work hard, (now to work smart as well), to be responsible and bold to set goals and achieving them. These are what I had learned from them during my 35 years working with the Chinese and literally watching them grow. They have a life to live like everyone, from the riches to the world poorest countries, there are riches to be found. It is the unselfish collective work and abundance mentality that make ONE RICH and able to LIVE HAPPILY.
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In 5,000 years of history, china has probably collapsed 50 times with the last collapse in 1949 when the kuomingtang government under generalissimo chiang kai shek hightailed it to taiwan (where he proclaimed it as republic of china 🇹🇼) after losing the chinese civil war. 😂
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We all need to improve our resources too
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Great Knowledge, great analysis. Very well presented. Thank you!
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As a Chinese living in the USA, I agree with you
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when will they claim US and British and NATO is going to collapse??? US has a One party system. they call Chinese government The communist party but never called US government as the capitalist Democrat or Republican party?? 😅😂 the West do the same thing as China when there's a housing market bubble in the US but the west never point out this. When US population reaches 1.4 billions like China is let's see how US deal with that to control a pandemic or feed that population 😅😂
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objectively spoke the facts out ,thanks sir.
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China will show to the world an example of the power of a rather functional meritocratic political system.
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Thanks to Gordon Chang, the claim made China stronger, able to find ways to avoid failures 🤪
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Gordon Chang is the failure and a disappointment to his father.
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If China is to collapse, then US has nothing to worry about. So if you believe what the US says all day, then you wouldn't even have such questions. As I see the only risk is Taiwan. Simply it's a button too easy to be pushed by the US out of panic.
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I love the subtle humor scattered throughout the presentation, thank you.
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1 China's GDP = 5.5 India. What will happen to India if China fails ?
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In 5,000 years of history China could have collapsed 50 times . The last time It happened was in 1949 when generalissimo chiang khai sheck high tailed it to taiwan in losing the civil war with red army and promptly declared the island as republic of china after mismanaging the economy of mainland china 😂😅😂
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The strange thing is, with some of the countries in the west having growths that are near zero, or worse, negative, no one is saying their economies are collapsing. It always sounds to me like only China's economy can fall. But as we can mitness, the reality is clearly the opposite.
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Fair and balance for China supporters?
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This is by far one of the most comprehensive and easily understood analysis of perceived China potential collapse. This is a real China expert who truly understand what he is talking about as he balanced between potential risks and actions taken to managed these risks, taking into consideration various local environment and context these risks occurred in. Kudos to Mr Pascal Coppens.
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Your videos are fascinating and I am learning a great deal from them. Wish they were shorter (so I can get some work done ;-) )
Thank you Pascal, for more of your well researched storying of China's progress and what the PRC/CPC is having to deal with as a consequence of such relatively rapid growth. The pace of China's growth is such that the response to by other nation states varies between admiration among much of the Global South, to envy among some of the slower growing developing countries, to outright fear on the part of major state powers who believe their share of global wealth and influence is being reduced as China's increases. Hence an increase in anti China rhetoric throughout much of the collective West.
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I hv either read or heard of China going to disintegrate and collapse for decades. The West, esp the Anglo-Saxon race just cannot stomach a strong China which they had had bullied, attacked and invaded since 1840, 1860, 1900 till 1945. China needs not worry about their negative comments and just have to concentrate on growth and prosperity. The West, now being led by an arrogant and hegemonic US can continue to maintain their totally unproductive military bases when their economy is fast declining and they will ultimately disappear from the world scene.
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if China really collapse, do you think any other countries would be survived?
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Not very convincing. Tell me about 20% unemployment with those recent graduates. Back to the disastrous Mao days.
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A big thank you for your comprensive analysis of China pass, present, future and possible uncertainty of certain issues. As for Gordon Chang , he is definitely history and a waste of time even to mention him. Thank you again Pascal.
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I will refer to your channel if allowed.
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Thanks Pascal for a very good analysis of China's problems and opportunities. Many of the risks that you have listed down are very real and as you said China is tackling them. I would list one big thing that I feel is an enormous advantage that China has which most of the global north do not possess. This is the authoritarian system China has. Instead of seeing as a weakness it is in reality a strength. Governing a country as large and populous as China is not easy...you need a good government that can execute. I think in terms of execution China's system of government is superior to say the US. Many of America's problems are widely known but somehow the US is unable to resolve them. Look at India it is the largest democracy in the world that recently overtook China in terms of population size and western media tout her as the next China...in fact predicting that India would eventually surpass China economically just because she has so-called democracy and rule of law. We hear this narrative for many decades just as we hear about the impending collapse of China for many decades. But every year we are seeing India falling further and further behind....India is simply a very chaotic overpopulated country that is impossible to govern... nothing gets done... Modi is more involved in projecting India's status as a world geopolitical player and promoting his Hindu supremacy at home to win elections than tackling India's enormous problems. Overpopulation is in fact an albatross around India's neck instead of something that will turbocharge India's economic future. The future of the would is not one in the 50s and 60s where cheap labor can propel a large country into the ranks of middle income country. With AI... robotics and mechanization a country trying to become topdog will not need so many workers.....but India is producing workers out of their ears...where are all these excess workers going to find jobs in a world that is more protectionistic? Yes China has big problems but the CCP is bent of solving them. India has bigger problems that the western media is not reporting. India I think risk a revolution when the hordes of unemployed rebel.
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How do we define collapse? Do we mean the fall of the CCP? Do we mean the rise of poverty and loss of the middle class in China? Do we mean a change of people at the top of the CCP? Do we mean the end of major banks in China? Without definition, we have no idea what is meant by "collapse".
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All those pessimistic predictors will fail. The real problem is that they don't know why they are going to fail. Because they are using a wrong accounting system to calculate China. Here, I used "accounting" to replace Karl Marx's word "value" but they are pretty much the same thing. The western value system is based on the profitability of individual corporations, therefore, it is is pretty much static and individual based.
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unbelievably, still have some american knew China very well, after cheking Pascal coppens information, he live in China for several years. let me remember Mao said: practice is the sole criterion for testing truth
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Great analysis Pascal. China is a reliable good friend, Russia, that can provide water, food and energy in times of need.
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This is excellent insight. Thanks i subscribed for sure
Excellent talk, like always Pascal!
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Amazing, amazing video! As someone who lived there 11 years, I can't agree with you more! Subscribed!!!
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I share your optimism too. China is a problem solver, so they will somehow solve the chip problem, as they have figured out the nuclear energy, space endeavour, AI and quantum computing. Yes, the Taiwan issue will be the red line and US knows that's China's Archilles' heel. China can deal with the red line without attacking militarily but containing economically. But even without the Taiwan issue, the West will conspire as a bloc to bring China down. Fortunately for China, it has already reached a point where it could survive even without the West, leveraging on its strong relations with Central Asia, Middle East, Africa and S America. China's strategy of non-interference and infrastructure building with emerging nations is more appealing to the third world than US's strategy of domination. A point will be reached when India too will be a part of that eco-system in which China is and the West will feel left out.
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Chinese started to grow their own corns and other foods as well.
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We need to understand that China faces many challenges, just like every other major economy in the world. Are China's challenges more dire than, say, in the United States or United Kingdom or Germany? Hell, no! The USA faces huge problems. A huge $32 trillion national debt. A potential banking crisis. A potential real estate crisis. A demographic problem. Crumbling infrastructure. And so on. Over the past 50 years, China has demonstrated a far greater capacity for solving its problems than America has. I'll place my bet on China any day of the week.
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Excellent facts and analysis. No country can grow forever important thing is how the government manages crisis.
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Your analysis are comprehensive with depth, it is really impressive.
Many comments pit India vs China. West is trying hard to divide and conquer. As India grows, it's inevitable to look for huge market, and China is just over the border.
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If flip flopping every 20 years is flexibility, then exercising every 20 years is strength! :P
I love your insights! I think u are factual, fair, and well balanced!
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This is the best breakdown and fairest analysis Ive seen so far. Answered alot of my own uncertainties about the future. Ive just become a new subacriber to this channel.
Gorden Chang and Jim Cramer are two broken clocks without all the needles 😅😂😅😂
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Your channel us quite interesting. Can I use this specific subject for introduction to Koreans, summarizing in Korean.
How can China be collapsing when she’s still sending more rockets into space?
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I think it will collapse more than Japan did in 1990
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On debt: I'd like to point out that when you go into debt for infrastructure building, there is usally a pay-back over time. When you go into debt to finance wars, the asset disappears and all you're left with is the debt along with a lot of destruction, displacement, death and misery. I disagree on the subject of Taiwan if the KMT wins a majority. Past patterns show that if this happens, the other side will double down and there'll be a color revolution and then a repeat of Ukraine. I hope China has a plan to nip this in the bud.
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👍Thank you for you expertise opinion. 😊China’s current uptrend will turn down, but only after a longer period (200-300 years, historically in 5,000 years of civilisation) of running up and peaking.
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I came from China and have lived in the States for last 40 years.I totally understand what you've managed to convey and overall am in agreement. Chinese people are very resilient, in addition, the power of long history and culture should never be underestimated. If you understand Confucius, you'll understand why the system can not fall easily and why the meaning of family is completely different from that in the west in general. A big country is built on many communities and communities are built on many families within the communities. In China that structure is very solid and well organized, which is one of the reasons there are simply very few homeless persons on the street. Chinese parents always emphasize their children's education, no exceptions.
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Thank you for the balanced and extremely rare perspective on China. On the point about China’s perceived mishandling with the widespread lockdowns at the tail-end of the COVID pandemic, I tend to think it was a calculated move with several objectives, not least of which was to send a wake-up call to the world on how important it is to the global supply chain and a precursor of what the effects of war with China will be. Even if war is inevitable, at least the country had a dry run already.
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Welcome to the world of differences between China and the U.S.A.: When the U.S. singled out China as an outcast to its space program, particularly its International Space Station, all Chinese took it in stride and worked hard to catch up. And when China launched its Tiangong space station ten years later in 2021, the world signed up to carry out scientific experiments in space aboard the Tiangong, including the pathetic United States of America. When China planned to send its personnel to the moon in 2030, the U.S. vowed to conquer the moon on more time, in 2025, and the U.S. Space Force said it can wage a space war at any given time. The world is waiting to see who the winner will be. When the U.S. used Ukraine to destroy the Russian economy, lesser countries around the globe fear for themselves. But when Russia fought back and burned the collective West with high inflation, the world cheered up. When the U.S. was busy gathering allies and friends to contain the rise of the Chinese nation, the world applauded when China bridged the historical divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran and brought them together to serve the interests of all Muslims in the region, no matter what their religious tendencies might be. When the U.S. printed money without constraint just to appease its own population so they forget about the economic failure on American soil, China stabilized the economy of the world by maintaining a steady supply of much needed commodities while inflation flared up in the Western world until today. When the U.S. acted miserably in begging to have the lines of communications with China as if China is the bully who ignores "the leader of the world," people in all political circles secretly admired when China openly told the U.S. in their face to stop the theatrics and to truly show their sincerity for talks before any meetings can take place between the two sides. When the U.S. publicly displayed its fury at the Chinese Yuan replacing their petrodollar, the whole world enthusiastically embraced the de-dollarization movement that has been spreading like wildfire across the globe as a self-defense mechanism to lessen the possibility of American sanctions or to avoid being a victim of American sanctions for holding too much of the greenback in their foreign exchange reserves. When the U.S. tried its best to decouple from the Chinese economy, Elon Musk of Tesla voted to set up another giga-factory for EV batteries and to develop autonomous driving technology in China using Chinese artificial intelligence and Chinese global positioning devices, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase held a tech exchange investment in Shanghai to further embrace the Chinese economy and declared the opposition of American financial behemoths against decoupling from China, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang will visit other tech companies in China and declared his opposition to American sanctions against China that badly hurt the profitability of American tech companies while Apple's Tim Cook quit India and returned to China for iPhone productions. Now you know who is out to destroy it to forever maintain its supremacy over all others and who possesses the desire to share a common future with other nations around the globe.
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Before China rising , I have never heard of so many discussions about China in west media . So the west is trying to figure out what to do with rising China, but not knowing how to deal with it. So maybe predicting the collapse of China will make the problem going away ?
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ENVY,ENVY,ENVY.THEY CANNOT EQUAL THE ACCOMPLISMENTS OF YOUR COUNTRY AND THAT IS WHY THEY TRY BY ALL MEANS TO PUT IT DOWN BUT IN COLOMBIA WE ALL KNOW WHAT A GREAT COUNTRY IS CHINA.
Mr. Pascal, China needs a great leap forward moment. Most advanced breakthrough in technology. Something like making EUV lithography machines on their own.
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I wish your video could reach many many more people!
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'Not fast enough' based on whose expectations? China leadership is probably more circumspect and deliberate than the West.
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China has prioritized 'for the people', 'of the people' and 'by the people' for decades and continues to do so. To achieve this for 1.4 billion people and still achieve growth despite previously unencounted arising problems, speaks volumes for the incredibility of the focus, efforts and abilities of such a governing body. It's mind boggling and has no precedence Globally, nor any other time in history. Such exceptional achievements are being recognized by more peoples and nations and are being applauded as 'an greatest achievement of all times'. To criticize this PRC government, please look into the mirror and re-examine.
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Hi Pascal, thank you very much for another video by you!! 👍👏❤ I should like to share - freedom in China means it has one of the best & affordable education, medical, transport, amenities and social security systems in the world. Freedom in China also means virtually no homeless, drug abuses, porn, public shootings, very minimal crimes and obesity! A survey done recently showed 91% of the citizens of China are happy with their life, and 95% approved the Chinese Government ways of running the country! China is moving forward - continuously improving, self correcting and evolving quickly to the passage of time - all things in China is getting better & better each passing year!
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We've been failing at failing for over 30 years😢
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China is his transition period, it is hard to say whether it will be successful or how long this period will be. But i don't think there will be a sudden collapse.
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Pascal thanks for your video. 👍👍👍
I'm about to start watching but I will make my comments early nevertheless. Asking whether China can fail is as silly as asking whether Singapore can be ruled by non-PAP government. 😂. I so hope Mr Coppen can make similar analysis to Singapore and its PAP ruler 😊.
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China keeps it up, I had had full confidence on you, keep it up, China!
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My prediction: the sun will rise in the east and sets in the west.
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Pascal 的确是个中国通，补充了很多我没想到的细节
Translate to English
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According to Trading Economics, China's public debt-to-GDP ratio is 76.9 percent, while for USA it's 129 percent. (It's 113 percent for Canada, 101 percent for UK, 112 percent for France, 66.3 percent for Germany, 145 percent for Italy, and 264 percent for Japan.) All things considered, China isn't doing badly at all. China's private debt, on the other hand, may be quite large (185 percent of GDP) but again, according to Trading Economics, the G7 countries don't look any better (216 percent for USA, 271 percent for Canada, 194 percent for UK, 284 percent for France, 182 percent for Germany, 166 percent for Italy, and 246 percent for Japan).
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It's more like USA will collapse faster than China...🤣
Unbiased analysis is what we usually lack. You did great being Unbiased! Lesson: we need each others. Any domination plans will simply create unbalance, then will lead to inevitable and continuous crisis in our societies. Greed need to go!
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Pascal's observation on Coal is most significant and needs to be addressed urgently.
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Time always tells the truth.
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the short answer is yes. even your Timex watch could fail. however, China is the only civilization capable of reinventing itself repeatedly throughout its long history that no other empire could.
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Enlightening insight of China in every aspects supported with simple but indepth analyses. Your views on China always give me a far deeper understanding of the country which is completely opposite of what we're hearing from the West. Great job👍
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You know, actually Chinese thank Gordon Chang, he makes the room and space for China to develop under the watch of the US.
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Actually, I believe US' debt in total is close to 760% of the GDP, 2-3 times the total debt of China. Not consuming everything immediately is "delayed gratification", isn't that a necessary attribute to be long term successful? Besides, investment also contributes to GDP growth, where Chinese investment (delayed gratification?) is on average higher than the rest of the word, but it is seen as bad because the claim is that it is non sustainable...... with no valid reason as to why higher investment is not sustainable. The same argument could easily be rephrased as to over-consumption being unsustainable.... But I am not sure why over-consumption gets a free pass compared to 'over'-investment, when looking at GDP growth....
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lots of good information here. I've lived in China almost 20 years and can vouch for the fact that there are challenges but the Central goverment tackles them well - I thnk Gordon Chang gets it so wrong because he looks at China with a Western lens rather than looking at China through his half Chinese eyes. There are huge psychological differences and you nailed one of them China's national debt is a lot less of a problem than USA's because it's internal, the debt is secured by the fact that China saves more than the GDP of most countries every year
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China has enough water. It just have to avoid draining into the sea, remove all industrial pollution and use the water carefully. The South-North Water diversion is a massive project that is still on-going but is very successful. Too much rainwater is still being drained into the sea. Plus Tibet will be diverting the water to Xinjiang and reducing the flow into India and Bangladesh.
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Great video, thanks.
Totally agree to what you said. Regarding unemployment, I heard some sectors in China are operating in long hours like 996. One quick solution could be lower the workweek hours per person and create more opennings for new employees to fill the hours.
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Hi Pascal: Over 1K comments? Good job! There may be no best politic-economic system on earth but there should always be a better one. My picture is that a better system should be dynamically feedbacked and to implement such system , an authoritarian power system seems to be inevitable. The problem of the liberal democracy system is that the awareness of individual freedom is like a one-way ticket and once awaken, it will never go back to sleep. Liberal democrocy is actually selffish oriented human nature.
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A more critical point in China's labour is internal migration and the Hukou system that needs further management for the promotion of stability and equality within the country. Most people who have not been to China cannot visualize the flow of a billion people.
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China self reports their GDP numbers and the best estimates have them over reporting by 60%. They're debt to GDP is way way different than any other developed country. You sound like a fan boy... not a serious economist.
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Nice video and insights as always Pascal. One thing I think is quite often overlooked when talking about "demography collapse" in China, is quite simply immigration ! If their economy need more hands, quite contrary of what you're saying, they could quite simply ease some restrictions when it comes to live and work in China, as the country is The economic powerhouse of the region. I'm not talking about having to seduce everyone around the worlds, but let's say attract some Vietnamese here and there, some Turkic nations to the West, Mongols people to the North, even Russian, Koreans etc etc. I have no idea how it is done today, I suspect there are some immigration coming from the numerous non-Han minorities de facto, but I think this is a good pathway for them if it becomes problematic, afterall any great economy did that in the past, including having Chinese immigrants. PS : Also we see more and more Chinese returning to the " motherland " as the sinophobic climate is ramping up these days, particularly in the US / Australia / Canada.
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16:16 half of their population is 50, 60, 70, do the math. How old will they be in 10, 20, 30 years? If you believe their numbers, they have 1.3 billion people today. That means about 700 million in 30 or 40 years. Who will work in the factories, who will pay to take care of the old people?
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Good analysis as usual Pascal. Excellent point on the unemployment of young people, which mirrors my own observations. I notices manay young people are dong low value adding service jobs, e.g. delivery. I was thinking this cannot be the best way to realizing the value these young people could bring. I think this points to a problem China has with its education system in that it focus too much on university not enough on targeted skill training, like what you have in Europe. The government realizes this and trying to learn the system from Germany, which ironically has decided mostly to adopt the US system.
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I visited China for the 1st time by yr 2008 while china organising Olympic, till now there are developments everywhere in China unstoppable, that's unbelievable!
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Just a thought, Chinese retirees are actually day care professionals for their grandchildren.
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This is so propaganda
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Hello Pascal appreciate the candid and balance view.
😂LV, Mercedes , BMW etc have their biggest markets in China. Never mind how economists measure the middle class trap
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Pretty solid analysis and solid arguments well lay out and presented.
Fair review. 👍
What you say means nothing. Let's meet up in Hangzhou to set the record straight. You are so biased! Your analysis fails to reveal the 'real' issues !!
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the system of china as one party is good because 1. no foreign country can bribe another party against their progress. 2. there is unity in their projects.
do not worry about China, the western is becoming poorer and pooer, more and more homeless and addicted people on streets, unaffordable home etc.
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Thanks Pascal for the great insights. Somehow, the west is always very "concern" for the welfare of China and it's people. ( i'm overwhelmed by how much love they have for others ) China NEVER export their idealogy to others. They have NEVER preached communism to the west. On the other hand. The west is always giving sanctimonious preaching to other as though their western style democracy is the paragon of virtue and success. ( which is far from the truth because their country is failing ) While the Chinese government is doing their best to improve the lives of it's people. ( they have lifted 800 million people out of poverty ) The west is always creating wars and interferring in other peoples business except helping their own people. ( one in six people in America needs food handout ) When things fail in their own country they blames China for it. They nitpick on every issue in China while their very own gets sweep under the carpet. The west should stop living in self denial and open their eyes to what is happening in the bigger world.
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Your Videos are extremely knowledgeable, many thanks for these views and opinions. There are too many wrong things in the US and European press regarding China.
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Each of these issues is spoken of as if in a bubble. Together they're a massive challenge for China, and the anecdote provided in this video is hope. I can call lung cancer a "big opportunity" if it makes me quit smoking, but that doesn't mean it won't kill me.
Jealousy madness for china.
I can prove there is, somewhere, sometime, somehow, someone in this world, that truly believes the world will be gone by this time next year. And, one day some time in the future, he is going to be right! So, prepare to meet your Maker. But not because he (the someone) will be right, but simply because you do not know if you won't be around in the world by tomorrow, for certain!
the thing about reports on china is that still you'd quote claims made by the ccp (like gdp) as absolute unadulterated fact which we know must be taken with a sack of salt
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As you said it is YOUR point of view... having lived there for 20+ years
As a Chinese, I was struck by the author's meticulous observation of China. I want to write a little bit of my opinion about brain power and population decline. It is true that China has faced a precipice of population decline in recent years,We have fewer babies born in 2022 than graduate from college。less than 10 million。 Although the situation in 2022 is largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the general trend of declining births is certain。 But that doesn't mean China faces a labor shortage anytime soon。 The labor shortage caused by fewer babies will be a problem at least 20 years later。 In fact, Since 2000, China's universities have been expanding their enrollment, so the structural unemployment problem we face now is more serious than ever. This is the reason why so many young people are now unemployed, just becasue it is difficult for well-educated people to accept low-quality and low-wage jobs. This is also why BYD was considered a savior in the job market last year, and only by constantly promoting industrial upgrading to create more valuable jobs can we make good use of brain power and tack youth unemployment problem. opportunity and crisis all exist at the same time
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China will not fail and collapse, period. The past two decades witnessed the very beginning of significant progress and prosperity in China. The better days are lying ahead. Chinese are hard working, resourceful and highly intelligent which are all essential elements for success in life. They have succeeded against all odds. And, the global south, representing 85% of world population, has pivoted recently in such a way tremendously beneficial to common prosperity in the global south, including China.
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Pascal debating Peter Zeihan would be a wonderful watch with tremendous insights both sides
Very good analysis. Did you hear that the first shadow bank in China fails bankruptcy this week (1st half Jan 2024)? As this is a non-regulated sphere, the impact will be very more difficult to tackle. Given more shadow banks will do the same, there is a serious implications. There will be pawns sacrificed to save the economy, and I can only hope not to belong to this category of pawns.
The main obligatory function of the CCP is to create jobs. Thus building ghost towns with several millions of houses which are not used. Or building a railway network which is now indebted to the tune of 900 billion dollars and there are still plans to expand this network. But the most glaring problem China has is her lack of ability to manufacture high-end chips. Even with the capture of Taiwan with its TSMC high-end production facility won't be enough. It requires expertise, knowhow and precision equipments from other other countries. Countries allied to to the USA have agreed to deny access by China to this technology. In the end its mostly China's hostile attitude like claiming almost the whole of the South China Sea and disregarding rules-based international laws that's driving China's economic failure. I agree with Peter Zeihan that China will be gone by the end of this decade. I just hope it doesn't suffer the fate of Russia which will probably become another North Korea.
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Great video. Sadly most China bashers in the western media are paid specifically to spread extremely selective reporting. The minimum requirement for a Chinese expert is to be able to speak and read Chinese fluently, and that outrightly disqualified the majority of western commentators on China as most of their analysis are only scratching the surface. And then the next requirement is to have local expertise, connections to locals, and having guanxi with huge layers of different folks at different social classes and sectors. Modeling the chinese economy is impossible using the western models as none of the advanced economies have absolute control over the financial sectors and land supply. All the data need to be backed up from anecdotes on the ground experience, and most western commentators don't seem to have such experience except a few living inside China.
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One thing that most westerners could never understand about the Chinese is SAVING.
First time I’ve ever heard anyone try to make a case for “Trickle-Down” economics in order to prevent the Middle Income Trap 😂
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🇨🇳🇨🇳Comprehensive analysis🇨🇳🇨🇳Aside Dr Pettis this is the best outlook 36:47 🇨🇳🇨🇳I’ve watched so far🇨🇳🇨🇳Congratulations
Good video, based on facts and very thoughtful
thank you sir,time will prove..
US economy is "a lot of air"
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At 15:07, Coppens mentioned that over the last 40 years, the PRC has "generally governed well". Assuming that's true - does that mean that the CCPs governance between 1949 to 1978 was not optimal? I say that rhetorically, because during that time Maos cult of personality wreaked havoc. It's one thing to say that the last 40 years were generally of good governance, but the last 10 have seen Xi attempt to create his own cult of personality. I'll make the argument that the last ten have seen PRC governance regress to the Mao years; an orthodoxy that took hold that retarded innovation and genuine reform for the sake of shoring up an autocrat's position at the top. We've been here before and it isn't pretty.
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Great video. Now, how about a video titled: "Could the USA fail? Will the USA Collapse?".
Very professional analysis from both sides.
Monday Thursday Friday: collapse Tuesday Wednesday Saturday: threat. Sunday: take a rest
Consumption led growth? Good luck with that.
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You describe what could be if China adopts a policy off being positive to the West and ends its history of being in conflict with the west. If China's leaders and its people were reliably trustworthy China would have a fabulous future. Unfortunately despite being saved from Japan and being invested in and educated in the West their history and current conduct is such that it foreshadows a very hard road for China. I enjoyed your video. Don Hansen
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Is there any update on Peng Shua or Jack Ma? Are they still alive??
The most important point is that the GDP per capita of China is about 12k USD which is less than 1/3 of Japan. There is no reason why the average productivity of the Chinese people can't reach the level of Japanese. Period.
I hope not because my dad was from China and scape to Taiwan right after civil war . My mom is Indian Burmese and I don’t believe there is karma 💯 ! Thank you for your show ! From Napa valley California !
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Thanks for the insight and logical layout on the long speculation of China's imminent collapse.
This episode's host seems doesn't know 95% mainland Chinese earning less than 5000 RMB per month. Many mainland banks already cash deficit that they are restricting people to draw money out !
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Let me tell you something that the whole West does not know. China is a one party system, but it is not. The CPC is an integrated party, which is divided into several parties, the ruling party, the Workers' Rights and Welfare Party, the Women's Rights Party, the National Medical Guarantee Party, the National People's Congress Representative Party, the Protection of Ethnic Minorities Party and other parties, about 30 or so. The Communist Party is mainly in power
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Thank you for this honest Brilliant presentation about China . China is a worthy player in the world economy , thrusted & respected by the majority of countries .
Low productivity is the direct result of its massive population that kept labor cost down.
Great opinion...
Here in Sweden we had pretty negative view on China over the years. Here a list: * Gui Minhai, an Swedish - Chinese author have been jailed since 2015 due his view on China. * An Chinese diplomat threaten an Swedish journalist that the newspaper Expressen wouldn't allowed criticize China. Or they pull of Sweden. In form of investments. * China owns important infrastructure that can threaten the stability within the country From trains, Swedish military barracks, microchip company which makes microchip for the defensive industry. *Have a illegal police station in Vällingby, Stockholm. *Stole the blueprints from big tech companies serval times. Specially Sweden technology progress on nuclear weapons. We had this program on/off since ww2. You're saying they did social reforms, how can you say that a country which wants to steal everything have to offer. And if you criticized against the China, they threaten a lot in front of tv. So yea, I've really hard to trust when China did a lot "social reforms". My dad's family experienced the true nature of communism and they always this mantra within the family: "The first thing they'll do is kill the truth".
Very rational analysis as always 👍
Some western experts keeping saying China would collapse for the last 30- years But they underestimate the will, the strengths and the determinations of 1.4 billion of its people. Because they do not understand Chinese people, their culture, traditions and their 5000 years of civilizations. To day, it proved they all wrong. China not only get bigger but stronger than ever before. China is like a ball, the harder you pressed on it, the harder it will bounced back. It proved it right 40 years on, and it won't stop there as we will all see. At this point in time which country has space stations on the Moon.? Who was the first to land on the back of the moon.?? Who is the peace maker around the world??
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You are right for China, I do believe it will be better as it goes
Time will tell. China like all other countries are experiencing several problems. One major problem deals with demography, the one child policy over the last 40 years has caused problems, most notably lack of new workers to replace the aging workforce. Other problems deals with the economy. As stated at the beginning only time will tell how the problems are resolved. Cheers.
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Great explanations. What do you make of China’s wicked criticisms of the USA?
If Gorden Chang is a listed company, it would be a huge opportunity to trade in the opposite direction.
The debt to GDP ratio is so out of whack there are no models or precedents to compare China to. The only thing for certain is the collapse of China will be unprecedented and huge.
Very good analysis
Population was a contributory factor to China's growth in the early years but not now since China is transiting to a tech economy.
China produced 650 million tons of grains and that is sufficient to feed its entire population. Then you may then asked why is China importing so much grains . The Chinese are forward thinkers..they buy 1year supply of grain ..to protect against famine,droughts, diseases or agst sanctions. In fact China is 100% sufficient in rice, chicken, eggs,meats, fruits and vegetables. They are only 80 % sufficient in wheat and 60 % in corn and soybeans .. the latter 2 are mainly for feeding livestock. Therefore they buy huge quantity of corns and soyabean from USA, Brazil, Argentina and Australia. To say that China is not efficient or productive in Agricultural is an understatement..the Chinese agricultural university and research centres have achieved many breakthrough in DNA and genome in plants and livestocks. Only rural china is behind the curve in productivity but then there are improvement made like using drones for spraying insecticide and fertilizing or using china Beidou system for planting ., Climate monitor and proper water usage etc
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I heard that for a long time. Unfortunately, for some people , they are very disappointed . Remember China has been in this world for 5,000 years
How do you define productivity? My barber charge me 20 USD per haircut, whereas I saw people paying 10 RMB or 1.5 USD for the same service in China. Does this mean the barbers in US is more than 10 times as productive?
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
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The question i have is, has China done as well as the CPC expected? And, as well as the most positive person from abroad? Or has the CPC projections declined?
Will the all powerful USSR ever collapse. People have been saying it will collapse for since the 1950's and it is still going strong.
Sorry, I must have missed the definition of "fail" or "collapse". A big engine take a lot to start, and stop, yes. Is the gas line cut? Base on the reading in the last 3 year, the money is not coming back. What is the PRO/CON of investing in China right now? relative to the remaining regions of Asia, such as Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and Korea?
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It is looking like 🇺🇸 is more likely to fulfill the so called collapse theory. Mounting homelessness and poverty, racial tension, gun violence, drug overdose, extreme polarization in party politics which cannot agree on most things except in hating China, dedollarization, huge and climbing national debts, moral decay worse and worse that they have to allow legal shop lifting, old and failing infrastructures, unaffordable healthcare, low approval rating of the government and political leaders, failure in education etc, etc.
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At least the Chinese government can identify and rectify it, not let the west, we don't see any improvement, except trying to improve how to slow down China growth.
What was the bad thing about bringing neoclassical economics back again? It’s still got the same old problems it’s always had. What was the good thing about bringing neoclassical economics back again? We can now be sure what happened in the US in the 1920s as global policymakers have all been making the same mistakes. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature. Why are our policymakers trying to drive our economy into a Great Depression? That always happens with neoclassical economics Neoclassical economics is the economics of the Roaring Twenties, the Wall Street Crash and Great Depression. Policymakers sooner or later use the economic growth model of the Roaring Twenties, oblivious to where this is leading. What goes wrong with neoclassical economics? 1) It makes you think you are creating wealth with rising asset prices 2) Bank credit flows into inflating asset prices. 3) No one notices the private debt building up in the economy as neoclassical economics doesn’t consider debt. 4) The banking system and the markets become closely coupled, and as soon as asset prices fall it feeds back into the banking system 5) The money creation of unproductive bank lending makes the economy boom as you head towards a financial crisis and Great Depression. 1929 - US 1991 – Japan 2008 – US, UK and Euro-zone After 2008, the Chinese started driving their economy towards a Great Depression. They saw the financial crisis coming at the last minute. Chinese exports to the West fell off a cliff after 2008, and they turned to their neoclassical economist to revive the economy. They started pumping bank credit into real estate. They were oblivious to the claims on future spending power piling up in the banking system. At 25.30 mins you can see the super imposed private debt-to-GDP ratios. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAStZJCKmbU&list=PLmtuEaMvhDZZQLxg24CAiFgZYldtoCR-R&index=6 Choo-choo, full steam ahead to a financial crisis that will leave them facing a Great Depression. They have a real estate ponzi scheme of Japanese proportions; the losses should be huge when that collapses. Japan discovered how to avoid a Great Depression and deliver Japanification instead. Save the banks and leave the debt in place. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YTyJzmiHGk
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The irony is that Gordon Chang will die a frustrated man.
Will China fail? I think you are referring to “will CCP fail?" It depends on the living of the Chinese people. If it will be better tomorrow, why not keep the CCP in power? if otherwise, who can assure that the "What Paper Revolution" would not happen again. Simple answer: economy. CCP has not failed because it handles the Chinese economy very well. It's doing well because the US, the European, and the developed countries all regard China as a friend. The situation was Changed a few years back, especially after the Covid pandemic.
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The Chinese know how to ear bitterness to eventually eat sweetness. This makes any setback temporary and China will come out stronger. China is resilient because her people are resilient.
I don't understand why China is so keen to recover Taiwan, which they lost in 1895 and is overcrowded and has no mineral or energy resources, not to mention a risk of war with the US, instead to recover Mongolia, which they lost only after WW1 and is so sparsely populated and has a lot of minerals, energy and territory.
Not able but collapsing, please think like this always and don't find trouble with China so that every one on earth can live peacefully.
We need a debate between Peter Zephaniah and pascal
Wow, non bs propaganda information!!! Great to see!
Gordon Chang's job is to talk and do interviews.
Gordon Chang has made a lucrative career on his " China collapse." Amazing that there are so many suckers for his crap year after year for more than 20 years now.
Communist to Capitalist: Although China gave up on the fundamental communist concept that the state should own the means of production they never gave up on the Leninist/Maoist concept of the dictatorship of the proletariat. In fact it never was a dictatorship of the proletariat, it was and is and always will be a dictatorship of the CCP. I agree the China will not "fail". It is indeed too big to fail and it still has lots of business all around the world and internally to sustain itself. What is more likely is that it will not continue to grow. Since Deng Xiaoping transformed the country we have been accustomed to growth rates over 5% and often over 10% per annum. This has fulfilled the CCP's claim of legitimacy through competence. That is likely to change over the next 50 years. China won't fail but it won't be a hegemon either. What will happen when Evergrande and Country Garden burst, thousands of people who paid for those apartments are going to get Fu--ed. I agree with you about environmen action. As one of my Chinese colleagues said, 'the CCP will address the environment problems because they have to breathe the same air too.' ears
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CHINA WILL NOT FAIL. China is the backbone developer for Developing Nations...
Pop Quiz: How many Chinese students and dissidents were murdered by the CCP in Tiananmen Square? A. 1000 B. 2000 C. 5000 D. 10,000
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Cordon Chang really wanted to see China collapsing 😂
Europe as a whole is done. - Mass and uncontrolled immigration. This drives house prices and rents up. Also strangles public services because more demand. - Uncontrolled public spending. More people means the gov needs to spend more. Immigrations are typically the poorest coming in. So they need to be housed, fed, clothed and given spending money. The tax base is at its limit, so the gov borrows more. - With increased spending taxes goes up. - With increased spending, inflation goes up. - With the NS pipelines energy into Europe is very expensive. So many homes in the EU spend the majority of income on energy. There is no way out. EU economies won't be growing any time soon. In-fact for the next 10 years all we are going to see are deficit spending and then suddenly... bang the whole thing will collapse. The UK is the canary in the coal mine. It will probably be the first to go....and with companies closing down, no work for the locals and definitely no work for the many migrants. That alone tend to build resentment and chaos ensues
It isn't possible for China to fall. They don't let anyone disrupt their traditions and they manufacture everything the world needs.
Africa is praying for China's success. You make sure that you are growing together with africa you try not to let us behind like like other superpowers. Long live China
As a Chinese I must say that your research is quite in-depth and detailed, even more objective than most Chinese on many issues. I am tired of most of the brainless ideological arguments on youtube, hope you can make more of these videos. Good work!
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I pray for it everyday.
Exports are also down because Chinese companies delocalise to Vietnam and even India. Both cheap labor as well as the crackdown of the current administration are to blame. You can’t sustain growth with lower investment and the government cannot compensate. You say that China needs to consume more, but also that taxes need to be introduced. That doesn’t make sense.
When you are in China, it's not easy to find a begger in the street, neither the homeless people. In USA, you can find in all big cities, the homeless people, in fentanyl,
Since family is the founding block constitutes Chinese society and also therefore people to people interaction within Chinese society, and it’s being thousand years old tradition for Chinese youth to take care of their family elderly. So on the downside shrinking demography may an issue for decides in the future, but on the bright side, taking care senior citizen shares both profit chasing and policy driving aspects as far as business in concern in China and it’s going to be another global target market for Chinese entrepreneur and business/industrial sectors too.
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Those who say that China is going to collapse are just jerousy
The world, including China needs a groundbreaking change! I don't know why people think so conventionally about the world. They can't abandon this thousand years old, money masters system (modern slavery system) that isn't working very well in the world. Once you abandon the money masters system, you don't have to worry about enslaving people into meaningless labor work (productivity) that only means big to the money masters because it's money masters' ideas, not the workers' ideas. Instead, the world can have groundbreaking discoveries and thoughts when people have more time to discover and innovate on their own.The money masters system is the obstacle for people to have their individual breakthroughs because people spend most of the time, working for the money masters. Then they go home and rest every single day. This becomes a robotic routine for most people (average joe) in the world. Only the top 1% (money masters) gets to have this freedom for breakthroughs, but I don't think their breakthroughs are truly beneficial to the world. Elon Musk thinks he is good for the world, but I don't think he is. Instead of migrating to a planet like Mars, he should think about improving the earth. It doesn't matter where humans go, we will still ruin another planet like what we did to the earth if we don't reflect deeply. The money masters should develop skills themselves to drive the ideas into real products, not relying on workers. Nikola Tesla had both the ideas and skills. So did the great Chinese engineer Zhang Heng with polymathic skills during Han dynasty. Unfortunately, many entrepreneurs in modern days just don't have it all because of the modern educational system of "speciality". Everybody can have ideas, but not everyone is polymathic these days.
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Why is the a food issue if the population is rapidly declining. Chinese are intelligent and innovative, I have faith that they will continue to innovate and move up the productivity ladder over time, manufacturing in particular. Just looking at artificial intelligence and robotics. Equally important and maybe a sensitive subject is who comes after current president. China needs another capable and strong hand.
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In fact, whole globe is collapsing gradually……😮
CHINA IS NEVER DIES.
🇨🇳👍 Every Chinese in My Taiwan knows
Very objective article !
Indoor farming is the key. The tens of millions of empty apartments, buildings, factories can be used for growing food on mobile, pushable racks. LED growth lights consume little energy. Indoor farming uses much less water than outdoors. Plus pest control is far easier growing in water than in soil, etc. Plus most of the retirees can be used as indoor agriculture is not labor intensive and no need to be in the hot sunlight. China can always conscript all vacant apartments and put them to economic use. And return them to the rightful owners if and when there are enough people willing to occupy those tens of millions of vacant apartments. The agriculture racks are on wheels, can be pushed around, can enter the apartment lifts, can be dismantled, etc. It is about being innovative...putting the hundreds of millions of sq kilometers of apartment space to economic usage.
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I had been arguing my friends and acquaintances about this issue. I always held to my view that China can never fail in hundred years under CCP style of communism rule.
Shrinking Chinese population would cause the collapse? Well, the population growth in the West has also reduced. Did we see the economic collapse of the West? Population shrinkage can also be overcome by immigration as was done in the West to increase the labour force, if needed. China is a one party rule. We’ll practically US is also a one party rule. It is a plutocracy. It controls both parties.
What I retain more about this presentation is that China’s debt is as big as USA’s debt.
I do not see why an authoritarian system cannot be de centralized.
China is a powerhouse..that is rallying between Russia and USA. They will choose whichever is in there BEST INTEREST
From where does the Chinese govt borrow its money externally?
Of course if China is stagnant and doesn’t tackle those problems this gentleman’s talking about China will definitely fail and collapse. But China is going forward to innovate, to find solutions. China realises their problems and is doing something about that.
Excellent analysis of China's economy, society, environment, and tech wars. In my opinion, China has become greedy, claiming territories that do not belong to them. Because of their arrogant attitude, countries like Japan, USA, CANADA, Europe, and Australia are pulling out their manufacturing sectors out of China. So its unemployment will go higher than 19%. That is a very alarming and dangerous level. Foreign investors now are also selling out their stocks in China as they think of China as a risk for investments.
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It will because many Chinese use Apple products. Several thousand phones made by Apple have been infected with the malware, according to the FSB. Not only Russian citizens were targeted, but also “foreign phone numbers and subscribers that use SIM cards registered with diplomatic missions and embassies inside Russia, including countries from the NATO bloc and the post-Soviet space, as well Israel, Syria and China,” it said.
I think productivity is bubbles would explose because IA, because the limiting factors are changing like education...and it's will change the price of what you produce so change the productivity.
Many youtube channels made by Americans talk about US collapsing such as: Epic Economist, D@W(Democracy @ work), Nick Johnson,etc
The sad part USA banned China Chips but USA send rare minerals to China to refine because USA have no high purity technology refiner..China still profit..
I suppose you mean middle income trap, not gap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap
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Ref to "Invisible China" by S Rozelle& N Hell also Michael Pettis "Trade Wars are Class Wars" & "The Great Rebalancing" these give a different perspective to Pascal both in terms of sociological & economic terms. Particularly the income inequality factors which affect economic growth.
Reduce value added taxes will give economy a big boost.
A pretty profound and realistic perception of progress of China provided the political leadership and provisional government can embrace integrity, rule of law and highly polished diplomatic skills to integrate with the global system rather than aiming for dominance and supremacy. China is a complex country with very diverse community. However there more talented, intelligent, resilient and innovative people where nothing is impossible that they cannot do.
Truth and unbiased views of China. I do not know about other countries but Malaysia imports a very high percentage of fresh vegetables, fruits and foodstuffs from China.
In China, land can be sold again because the land belongs to the government. The land selling in China is just selling the right to develop and use for a period of time only.
Very good analysis
A thoughtful presentation. Your view of food, water and energy as a serious weakness in the Chinese economy is absolutely correct. This weakness will make China very vulnerable to naval blockade, preventing delivery of critical resources. It has an export economy, but does not have the natural resources that make production possible. Its production costs have increased significantly, it is no longer the low cost producer. Its approach to foreign investment is not reliable, so supply chains are seeking alternatives to China; they will find them. As the west reorders its supply chain the reliance on Chinese manufacturing will reduce considerably. I do not believe China will collapse, but they will be fortunate to muddle through. If the world goes into a deep recession, it will be especially painful for the Chinese debt laden export economy.
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There are practical reasons why America has bankruptcy laws. If the individual is permanently mired in debt, he will never have the income to purchase anything else. Your market system will either contract or not develop. The Chinese citizen who could not pay mortgage will lose their home and will still be responsible to the debt. This is the temporary solution of the CCP. The individual will ultimately stop paying or become a debt slave. You basically acknowledged that the GDP numbers have been over calculated since 1994. If it was over calculated by just 1%, we both know its more, what is the actual GDP. I don't know if your game is to attract investment to China, but you should consider touting the virtues of China's competitors. Most investors are looking elsewhere.
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For China to fail is impossible because they have plenty of money in IMF/World bank. Besides their technologies are on the rise like EV, aerospace. in addition , they invest heavily in developing countries either in bridge, high way, etc. that can generate income billions of dollars per year. Many Chinese people are stilling living poor so they can be a big consumers, generate jobs. They can be failed if they have war in SC sea or with India and at the same time minority people in China is up rise. Just opinion.
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Very well categorized. Multipolar is the answers.
I don’t think any country is exempt from becoming a failed state. Some countries may do better than others, and have a more protected lifespan before they film..
and your point?
Pascal, you have a special gift in selling China. CCP Foreign Ministry should engage your expertise, or perhaps they have already done so?
Thats the system of their governance, China is a peaceful place, thats the beauty of it, its difficult to handle a huge population like india , america, etc. each country has its own problem and no need for us to discuss or interfere them. We always hope for the best.
Mineral resources. China should step up recycling of material. Less use of minerals from Australia, more imports from Africa, etc. are possible solutions. Plus there is no need to import so much iron ore of recycling can be step up.
There are at least 2 systems in China to rule the country. Every five years there are country visions for the government to follow, even the private sectors/ plan their goal based on that. One system in government carry execute the government direction while the other system is to monitor if the governors are carrying out the policies properly or if the governors carry out the rule against the benefits of the people. Then remind that or force to correct them to the right path.
I think its more relevant and urgent to do a video on "Could Amerika fail? Will Amerika Collapse?" Don't you think?
The real strength of one nation is the agricultural position, after all people should stop work every time to eat, AMERICA - North , Central, South america are abundant in food security.
All of that sounds exactly like the USA or EU & friends. It certainly doesn’t sound like China. Or Russia for that matter…
----/// China is , now , scared of Indian military might. China is , also , apprehensive of the role India can play in the eventuality of choosing a successor of His Holiness. May the current His Hopelessness , the Dalai Lama , have a very long life. //
What does a country do when they are having a down trun in one economy ❓❓ They go to WAR‼️😮
Huge Problem: 3 Gorges Dam! $28.3 Billion USD Three Gorges Dam Has Failed | Tofu Dreg Construction Quality |Drought & Flood (2)
Chinese propaganda did not know you are the CCP.
communism does best when a country is poor. The poorer the country the better for communism. What do you think the CCP would like to see. Prosperity or poverty?
Pascal Coppens can be trusted as much as any other Western imperialist.
Obviously all IUS narratives, we will see how things develop.
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They already have, you will see it before 50 years.💧
Systemic problems of western democracies are never mentioned . Is this because the west consider their systems to be perfect? Their democracy dream has a perfect weakness which defy correction. So much had been said about the freedom and the power to choose their government but therein is the weakness. The political parties must be voted in and the leaderships work very hard to get into the office but all these are done for the interest of garnering votes not national needs and interests. The many parties are therfore spineless and the people are taken on a downward ride because they are fearful of changing whatever need changing
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You say the CCP can solve its dire economic problems by simultaneously raising taxes and getting people to spend more. I disagree.
"Monitoring" a bubble is about as useless as monitoring someone jumping off a skyscraper. 😂 Oh just write it off? Who's paying you Pascal? They're not getting their money's worth.
You can't issue a property tax retroactive now. Too late.
History is littered with the fall of authoritarian regimes. Russia is working on the their third collapse since the fall of Czar Nicholas II. The U.S. is declining because we continue to move away from our constitution; we we're once a representative republic; however, we are becoming more authoritative and corrupt. Now we are not China or Russia; however, we are much better as a surveillance state that those two countries, which is troubling. China will go through some significant upheavals it's just a matter of time. The U.S. will as well; however, we always reinvent ourselves and come out leaner and stronger.
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China's youth unemployment is nearly 20 percent. I'm curious in the west where productivity is already very high people don't need to work in a factory 10 hours a day what do young do for a living?
Its all relative. Global society is in decline everywhere you look. Right now what i know of Asia including China it has billions of people living very low standards of living so they cant really "collapse" much further than they already are. The problem China has is that society IS too centralized....they have massive over capacity in manufacturing in the face of the west's collapse. So no doubt lots of Chinese citizens will return to the rice fields.
Western think tanks only look at a country failures through the lens of Western conditions, why China could not easily collapse. Look at North Korea, any collapse? Authoritarian regimes don't collapse easily unless 50% of population perish. Anybody who complains never make it alive so who dare rise up against the system?
China has a lot of billionaires in all countries Most of them were in the top 100. Some are trillionaires. Economic collapsed is just an ordinary iexpwrience of China. Manageable! !
the ccp as an enabler! how much were you paid?
Now China is rising very fast, No body can stop China ,
Read Peter Zeihan’s: The End of the World is just the Beginning.” This should be China’s last decade as a power because their demography is terminal!
Do we still even believe in separate countries at this point?
Something is hard to tolerate are unapproachable to the you tube ,Google ,twitter .a real serious issue
China is a common-ownership country. Make sure you understand that, then stop think China runs on western economy doctrine. It a whole other story, with totally different mechanisms.
The societal resk is real and big. You have a situation where Xi has attacked the industries which had allowed the young educated people to excape the middle income trap. The tech and private education industries have been decimated. The newly affluent population was percieved as a threat to the control of the party. Now in Guangzhou the party has decided to send 200-300 thousand unemployed graduates out to the country. This educational advantage will be lost just as the generation sent up to the mountains and down to the country lost their prospects to protect Mao's power. The third tier cities are not being bought up to the status of the first and second tier but rather the first tier cities are being reduced to the status of the lower tier cities. Xi has just promoted the man eho enabled his family to gain national economic influence to be head of the economic infrastructure. He does not govern for the benefit of the peiple but for his own benifit and that of the princelings. Clapse, no. Japanese style decline certainly. Demographic risks are similar, Confucan outlook are similar but China has a waker political system which will make a transfer of power much more destructive. When the mandate of heaven is lost all hell will break out.
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China is a blessing to africa.
With youth unemployment rate as high as 20%, there is not enough jobs for old people.
How did people like Martin Wolf and Ray Dalio reverse their view on China? Think about it! Don’t just cherry-pick.
Most of your argument looks like counter intuitive, like crisis means opportunity, low productivity means space for improving productivity etc, weakness is strength, a problem is itself the solution etc. It's a wholesale sophistry.
Because the complete private sector economy of the west, esp in the US has worked out just so well up this point...
Interesting about Chinese GOVERNMENT-Style of Accounting. Expenditures equal Assets. Over-value the presumed appreciation of a purchase and it's banking structure shows GREAT RESULTS. SO! Who cares about the value of the expenditure! Therefore, China failing? It is an impossibility. This concept has been known for decades.
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Bigger problems confront Western economies entangled in Ukraine war.
sooner or later something bad is bound to happen to EVERYONE.
"The Decline of the West" by Oswald Spengler 1918. This topic is more interesting.
I feel very much respect for China
In terms of agriculture, China actually has a high productivity. I don't know where you got that it wasn't
Imagine what will happen with the collective West, when the PRC collapse.😂😂😂😂😂
The collapse has already happened just look at the current GDP growth figures and go back to the 1970s before the social market reforms and compare. Then take off about 2% for the inflated over exaggerated data used and add that correction into the past 40 years and bingo, things no longer look so Rosie. 600 million lifted out of poverty the average salary in China is now $50k a year whilst in America its over $80k and thats a wild estimate at best cos in China everything is manipulated to please their superiors and audience. In truth the accurate average workers salary is probably nearer to the bottom end of estimates, about $20k per annum, only a small selection of the working population earn good money. Then you have the unemployment rate and job opportunities, the relocation of businesses even some Chinese companies are now moving production to other countries, the fall is real and now and it will continue for some time to come. The big issue China has is its internal domestic demand, with exports crashing through the floor it needs to increase home consumption and find new markets, the West is going elsewhere and who else has our income and wealth as much as demand? NO ONE !!! The thing is Chinese people do not spend like we do they save, save into a black hole, and that has to change. So in answer to your question, its nbot if and when, its now, its happening already, just look at the order books and the unemployment rates, all negative
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Now China's growth is slowly decreasing and China's economy has started stalling, India is growing very fast and in the coming decades India will become the second largest economy. 🇮🇳🇮🇳💓🚩
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population and aging in China are not problem at all. Because automation and robots will replace most of people's worker There are no need for too many workers. China right now already has abilities to replace some human, but not. because there will be many people unemployed.
Why? There are no prediction the US will collapse, given the dysfunctional government and the immense amount of debts. Isn't it in a much higher risk position?
Too BIG to FAIL! so, be careful what you wish for...
China and U.S. has the same quantities of debt, but China's dept with infrastructure properties behinds it, and the majority of ameria's debt are on consumption and military properties
I believe that the argument whether pro or con is baseless. The world has grown to accept China as the world's factory. And ideally so because of the massive home market that can provide consumer momentum. Should China stop production, this world's economies will crash, and that includes the American market which is tenuously perched on Wall Street and their sometimes-mistaken interpretation of even their own market. Take even the local commerce. They predicted that Jamaica would begin to see recession in early 2023. But we are seeing growth above Latin American and Caribbean growth if Guyana is excluded. Back to China though. Let me close with this declaration, despite Wall Street. If our factory fails, this world fails.
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Who's making this claim, and why?
Peter Zeihan is a current China doom merchant similar in his views to Gordon Chang are they both connected in some way? Are they being financed by the same political groups ?
Whenever I see hear a non-Chinese “eloquently” talk on the subject of China, I just laugh it off. It is just comical. It is like when a Chinese start to brag and talk “eloquently” about the culture and history of American cowboys, again very comical.
China facing some key problems with many of its own making. Recognising CCP mistakes very hard to swallow pride. With manufacturing leaving in large numbers its debt issues and housing & infrastructure will mean a lower income and opportunities for most. Go back to the countryside?? Is that still possible??
I wonder what happens to the debt we owe China ? Hmm..
I live in one of biggest Chinese communities in the US.....SGV, Ca.
Positivism at an higher level. Full of problems in China but, no problems at all, only opportunities.
Where is Gordon Chang now a days?
They devil thinks and looks everything as bad and as they love disasters, chaos and wars..
Yes, that what gordon had been saying for last 20 yrs
REMEMBER THE LIVE PHONE VIDEOS WE SEEN. HUNDREDS OF CHINESE HUMANS LOCKED IN THEIR HOMES SCREAMNG OUT OF THEIR WINDOWS WANTING OUT, HELP, FOOD. THIS GUY NEEDS TO BE IN PRISON. ALL DANGEROUS LIE'S
China will definitely not fail, but the optimism shown is way too unreal. Post Xi, China is testing many red lines and so it's growth will also be much more Limited now. All the high frequency indicators like oil and gas consumption, car sales, frieght, electricity consumption (real, not parroted data) etc show that economy has barely moved in last 5 years. China has a decade to move out of this trap. Post that India will also become a bulwark against their hegemonic designs. With extremely poor relations with west and Asia pacific, China will find itself boxed in. For all its bravado, if China is so strong, why can't it get Taiwan, or even islands from Japan and further land grab in Himalayas.
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You are telling the truth about China, which makes some unhappy because they are ALWAYS expecting China will collapse every minutes which will never happens. China still has a lot of problems but it is not going to fail.
They made the same predictions on Japan..... Many of these claims 💩
The diplomatic noose is tightening around India as the United States has ramped up attempts to entice India to join NATO Plus in advance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Washington. Geopolitically, India's ability to avoid peril while navigating diplomatic minefields is remarkably nuanced and intricate. The United States wants India to join NATO Plus to safeguard Indo-Pacific plans to make India the sixth member of NATO Plus to align its defense and security with the United States to counter and contain China. Prime Minister Modi's likely or unlikely to join NATO Plus is ambiguous. The time is not suitable for India to join NATO at the moment. India and NATO, the two groups may collaborate on occasion or conjoin with one another. It is argued that India does not have the necessary actual conditions and motive to join NATO at this time. Nonetheless, it may engage in an opportunistic partnership with NATO at a later date, which worries BRICS states. By joining the US-led Quad, India has already weakened the BRICS' efficacy. There may be times when India and NATO cooperate or occasionally work with each other to align its defense and security with the United States to counter and contain China. It aims to pull India into a defense-security alliance with the US to confront the Chinese by making it the sixth member of NATO Plus. The United States is eager to have India join NATO Plus to ensure its hegemonic safety and security. Recent occurrences, such as India's participation in rival factions, demonstrate its internationalist foreign policy. India's membership in several geostrategic international organizations whose foreign policies appear to be at variance with one another (the Quad, the SCO, the BRICS, the G7, and the Commonwealth) is viewed with suspicion by the other BRICS nations. Some academics fear that India could undermine the BRICS nations. Since Trump advocated picking a border skirmish with China, Putin has been criticized for Ukraine conflicts in front of him for attempting to placate the West in front of Western audiences. Russia tried hard to engage China and India more effectively through its managed relationships. Can India and China's connections be repaired and strengthened? Beijing and New Delhi's efforts to reduce tensions between their countries are cast in a long shadow by the protracted border conflict. There would be significant repercussions for India. Selfishness is not tolerated. In a world where greed is frowned upon, geopolitics is driven by narrow self-interest. This is the reason, according to some academicians, why Russia would not trade in Indian rupees. In addition to preferring the rupee over the yuan, India has tacitly opposed the RMB's establishment. According to China and Russia, international nuclear non-proliferation norms would be violated if the United States followed through with its AUKUS proposal to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. However, India supported this. If the United States delivers Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and WMD technologies, some individuals ponder why India has yet to be given the same chance. India's somersault in BRICS is a misgiving of the emergent multipolar world order. The BRICS nations worry that the US pressure may lead to India's eventual membership in NATO Plus. India's diplomatic expertise and ability to avoid diplomatic hazards are both highly delicate and complex. It will be captivating to witness India's capacity to simultaneously leverage the Quad, the SCO, and the BRICS to its advantage. So far, India has demonstrated proficiency in managing its foreign policy. Mr. Jai Shankar is the most competent and assured diplomat India has ever produced. Observing India's intriguing, innovative utilization of this to her advantage will be a fascinating, riveting spectacle.
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Main problem with china is that it is a retail store.Other countries are taking part of that action little by little India,Vietnam…..This will lead to some major employment problems in the future .Some manufacturing is slowly coming back to the USA adding to the chinese slowdown.Just my view cant see how it sustains itself.Chinese are big savers a plus and a negative because they are poor consumers of domestic products.Think India will eat their lunch easier to deal with than a Leninist communist government.
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China is far from perfect, but it's trying to solve its inner problems with the method of development.
Except that China has collapsed many times before… and the data now looks worse than ever. But we aren’t talking about China collapsing as a state. We are simply talking about it collapsing from a world economic power to a regional economic power.
Minute 6:00 - China did not suddenly become capitalist at the end of the 70ies, but rather was facing the actual momentum of absolute bankrupcy, which would have most likely led to the unreversable downfall of the CCP. Deng Xiaoping saw the only way out in allowing his fellow countrymen and women to earn some buck, but not because he or the other CCP elders were all of the sudden big capitalist friends, but rather to safe their own skin. This as just one of many examples I could add to this discussion concerning the acclaimed amount of reform efforts. Basically I would like to state, that the CCP always remained a Leninist Party from its very core and its one and only goal is to stay in absolute power, come hell or high water. None of the reforms were meant to lead to a better life for China's citizens per se but only as a tool to keep the CCP in unubstructed power. Meanwhile the CCP members and mostly its leading families amassed incredible amounts of wealth and basically decided, who they'd allow to get rich as well.
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You r a wonderful CCP defender. They manage to control risk by throttling the people of China. In fact the silence of Chinese citizens r like the silence of lambs.
China will not fail as long as they can continue to generate wealth.
Could US fail? I would like the same question could be extended in the topic.
China has state banks. Chins is sovereign. China is well positioned to succeed.
Until the ccp cares about the chinese people I don't want to hear anything
Sun Tzu said to never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake, let the so called experts in the west think whatever they want 😂
I think, China will not collapse.Of course there are some problems.But it's economy is stable.However due to migrating of a number of western companies, problems like unemployment will increase and the GDP may fall. That is all.
24:45 what is that chart? How in earth 13000 Yuan is high income? That's like $2000 a year!
It could, but it won’t!
经济的三驾马车，投资，出口，消费。中国在各国都有大量投资，包括欧洲，非洲，东南亚，中东。中国目前开拓了俄罗斯和中亚的市场，今年在俄罗斯的出口增长672%在中亚的贸易增长48.4%。（美国限制俄罗斯的贸易导致俄罗斯只能进口中国商品）。最后是消费，中国境内已经没有疫情，如此庞大的消费市场，带动了中国经济增长。（从最近德国汽车加大对中国投资也可以看出）。中国各省的债务问题：中国为了发展高铁进行的投资这种投资在未来会有极大的回报，将有助于经济一体化发展。中国老龄化问题：中国在2016年就实行二胎三胎政策缓解老龄化问题。在互联网创业上中国2021年出台了反不正当竞争法和反垄断法，政府也会对中小微企业进行降税，降低中小微企业银行贷款利率。所以综上所述，中国灭亡论是悖论，而且这种愚蠢的言论在几十年年前就已经有了，然而现在中国依旧发展迅猛。
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Chinese leaders are engineers who understand debugging a system if it does not run correctly.
Upgrade to compete and at the same time, adopt or die.😅
Definitely, it could, but it'll be a while yet.
China is less likely to collapse than in 1989, because the CCP has invested in a fearsome and mighty internal security apparatus since, which now includes face recognition cameras and intense internet monitoring About 500 million security cameras have been installed across China, nearly one for every two people and while they are sparse in remote country areas, the CCP have installed agricultural police to prevent rebelliion breaking out in the countryside. This is a little stange to me as the countryside in China has been declining in population for decades as the peasants have aged, so a rebellion in the countryside will be less likely to affect the central government as in 1949, when China was still largely agrarian. The CCP also has the PLA to settle any rebellion in any one large city or province, so this will not work either. Additionally, the CCP has a massive propaganda manufacturing factory (online), which confect the narrative and even confuse andThe only way to get rid of the CCP is for a coordinated rebellion over half the country, which is highly unlikely as the CCP rigidly and tightly control the channels of communication in China. The CCP shinks as the economy of China is now sinking, but the internal security apparatus is likely to remain intact. If the CCP reduces pay or stops paying the salaries of their thought police, then and only then, will a mass rebellion likely to ensue in China.
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As a business owner in China your analysis is very good but you idea about China’s brain power is a little off. Yes, more youth are educated but most do not want to work, take risks or leave their parents home after finishing university. Many are also resisting marriage. This is a red flag in my view since marriage and responsibility for aging parents will of course require a lot of work. Many 25-30 year olds educated in China want to be bosses. I am finding business here would prefer to hire Chinese students educated outside of China with at least a year of work experience outside of China.
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I really have to say something about Gordon Chang. He is not a prophet. He just wants the attention, book deals and FOX News interviews.
China just saw another all time high record trade surplus buddy. Pretty sure they’ll be just fine while the USA drowns in debt 😂
I'm not agree with wanting any country to collapse. What about people? Why you wanna watch them suffer? Political is sometimes a mess. War crimes happen too many times in this world because people buying the political shit.
To say that China is the most hated country is an understement due to the pandemic.
American Dream. It is the American culture to dream and some dreams are about other people's nightmare.
It won't collapse, but it'll go poor.
Kind attention of the World: Anything can happen that China will face. The explanation is fraught with inappropriate microeconomics collapse. The Chinese economy was artificially inflated with 30% hike on the prices of their land to attract more foreign investment and failed the ROI and risk factors have grown due to the real estate bubbles. Further and above, the Chinese economy is an export dependant economy. China has invited these problems to suffer their subjects. Their vision is different from the world as an autocratic country. Krishna swamy Dhanabalan.
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Quite WISHFUL Thinking that China is going through that of corruption etc. For some of us who have never ever have been RACALLY place as White/Yellow as eg Japanese. Many know the Chinatowns under the British Empire and around the world. Don't forget China was colonised by Europe. So the China narrative by the West has that conotation very much too. The Chinese were never just most us in the British Empire CITIZENS but SUBJECTS.
The numbers do not lie. They have not recovered from the pandemic and there production numbers are down. Western companies are leaving the country and the jobless rate will go up. The goverment is at an all time spending spree with there military spending and to support this huge economy will be very difficult in the near future. Even the internal spending in real estate and other consumer spending is down from before the pandemic. All of this is pointing to a downfall.
Or maybe Gordon Chang is just being clever..He keeps selling the book!!! 😂😂😂😂😂😂 Well he knows the hatred towards China is selling..eventhough he had been wrong 99.999% of the time, people didn't question him..
__ Sure, but not this week buddy. __
Well USA is having these mentality, when someone hang himself with a rope, then USA will blame the rope manufacturer. Later when the manufacturer kill himself then USA will blame hemp, linen, cotton, coir, jute, straw, nylon and polyesters as those are the ingredient to make ropes. When the gatherer for these hemp, cotton and so on raw material kill themselves, USA will blame the grower and lastly USA will blame it on the rain. Well these mentality are planted way way back in 80s when Americans love Milli Vanili song "Blame it on the rain" BUT surprisingly when there are mass killing with gun shooting, USA will not blame the guns or gun manufacturers..... duh LOL
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the room to wiggle gets constrained by the demographics. Their economy expanded very far and very fast while they changed from a third word country to where they are now. But they stopped having enough kids! They limited the ability to have kids. The number of people following the bubble generation is not big enough to fill the size it grew to. The number of consumers, tax payers and workers is insufficient. It's that simple.
Actually it’s western society is going to fail 😢
Big different between China and Gordan Chang. He had a deep love for China. Of course, why did I say that's. The western loves to see China (Collapse and Failure). It's so convenient that Gordan Chang an inside gives hope to the western world, given the reason WHY? China collapsed and failure. It's a win win both ways for himself and China. The Art of War by Sun Tzu The supreme art of war is to subdue, the enemy without fighting Never interupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. The opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. If you know the enemy and know Yourself, you need not fear the results of a Hundred Battles.
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AI will take over most human work and productivity in the near future so human labor will be less and less. Instead with this it will make more human to venture into outer space to create colonies and inhabit other planets. This after AI technologies have scouted habitable planets.
You are missing something big, you don’t understand the underlying culture mechanism of that system, the lifestyle and why it is how it is today. Let me put my conclusion first, being born and raised in China, and opened my eyes and reshaped my values in the western world, I think, that culture is a big threat to a civilized rule based world. But this is a huge topic, unfortunately I can’t explain my reasoning without writing a book.
This guy is intelligent
I for one expect China to fail, at least in its current form. There are several axes on which this could happen. Don't forget, before the CCP took power, China was in one of its warlord periods. Mao was really just another warlord. This could easily happen again. One axis of collapse could be China starting a war. China has become totally dependent on inputs from abroad. These are easily disrupted. If that happens (and it is not difficult) then China collapses very quickly. In fact, you would also see mass starvation. Another axis is the economy. There is no way that the housing market recovers. There is a massive oversupply of housing. In the used home market, there are millions of unsold properties. The government goes back and forth about multiple home ownership. Considering that the Chinese people prefer to invest in property (something they can understand) rather than the markets (something foreign to people raised under communism) the whole capital formation process has been perverted. This does not even take into account the failure of the export sector to fill the gap. Finally, employment is down (far more than the CCP will admit). That will lead to social instability, which is the greatest fear of the CCP. Onn top of all that, China is waring with its major trading partners and opening saying that they want to take over the world. Is it any wonder that they are getting pushback and experiencing disinvestment. Heck, a number of Chinese companies are setting up shop outside of China. A third axis is tensions within the CCP. These are real, and as Xi fails to come up with policies to both reform the economy effectively or to continue to enrich them directly. China is, like Russia, a kleptocracy. It is hard to say when the collapse will happen, but no country in China's situation can be stable.
Bro is sponsored by China 😂
There are no middle class in china and chinese no more got high saving as this video claim😂😂
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Let me say. No countries dare to closed doors to outside world for 3 years. Great China will never collapse. ... Great wall of China. Okay steel walls. 😊
Major props on this video for being blunt on not just China’s successes, but it’s challenges too. I think it goes to show that your balanced view of the situation makes it all the easier to appreciate China’s successes while those who one-sidedly demean or praise another country quite ironically cast far too much shade on their own agendas
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it is very danger to china if most western people think wisely like you. just let them stay hungry and foolish
Greetings Pascal Like you, I'm bullish on Chinese future prospects.However I'm disappointed that you failed to mention the gender gap( with millions of males never to marry)in your discussion of the demographic challenges or the costs of security and societal control measures.The brain power asset is enormous, but also the brain drain by the emigration of unemployed,educated young people in search of western freedom and personal agency,outside "the great firewall". The lack of a politically independent judiciary,in both criminal and civil law, poses risks in outside investment, especially in tech and IP cases.The CCP's need for stability and control presents an interesting experiment of combining a semi command highly regulated economy( for the good of the people) with the innovation and energy of the free market(with all the downside of inequality and personal reward). Additionally, how will China fare vis-a` .-vis India going forward?I hope you can address these issues in another video.Thank you for your informative insights.
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This guy is wrong on almost every detail he discusses, especially the effect of demographics, however, he may be correct in his conclusion, i.e. that China will find ways to muddle through the humongous economic problems it has. This is dependent on China's current ability to change in a constructive way with the current trends dramatically suggesting that it no longer has this capacity, at least until Xi Jinping with his retrograde totalitarian instincts is replaced or dies.
Interesting....
Foreign business is leaving. The CCP was tolerated because there was so.much money to be made. But they are tightening their grip and foreign investment is going elsewhere, and its affecting China's economy. China does not have a consumer base to compensate for the export losses, so this trend will get worse. Add the demographic problems that are the most severe in the world , and you amplify all this. China depends on the US Navy to ensure the safe import of energy and food. The US has started pulling back from that responsibilty. China will have great difficulty projecting power all the way to Iran. If that trade gets strangled, China will suffer. Xi may be able to stay in power, but millions will starve. China can't feed itself. They have been very foolish.
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Setting a date for end of the CCP is impossible, IMO. That does not mean it won't collapse. I think it will. But, I doubt it will be next year, and maybe not within 10 years.
China doesn’t have much better systems, they have one person systems and one person goes wrong, whole county quickly goes wrong..
There are some facts that even the Chinese themselves agree. The one child policy has resulted in a significant nature of the demographics of the nation. 40 years on say the next generation is in their high productivity, at the beginning. Size is half the size of their parents generation, and the present children the next generation are again half the size or 1/4 the size of the original parent. And those original parent are leaving the work force. The migration to the cities of rural population and those people living in high rise housing doesn't promote having children. So the end of the one child policy did have an affect. Work force is going to drop by 7/12 as the children enter and fill some of the original parent's jobs. Economy based on hands to assemble goods is directly related to the population of workers that is decreasing. Labor cost have increased significantly as fewer works exist. So less good are economical to produce. Manufactures are moving out of China. Reforms of the CCP is constant and even increasing. So why do you make a change? For a government bureaucracy that doesn't like changing. Change occurs when the present directive doesn't even come close to the desired goal. So increasing rate of changes is a clear indication of poor to just bad decisions in the past. And typically the the bureaucrats do not admit the failure until it is so obvious that the lies the have been telling and forcing other to tell is obviously a LIE. Now the society has learned to avoid problems by lying, and ignoring the problem chronic problem in China. Further problem is that the world has industrialize so on the whole the worlds population are decreasing and getting older. The biggest customer group are young families, less of them world wide, less customers. China's geology has result in it always being decentralized. It is made up of a series of river water sheds that are independent of each other. The rivers transport goods in scale and the ocean is use to go between water sheds. Modern transportation has reduced the independence, however; the cross connection are not to scale needed by an economic system. And climate also changes significant as one goes both east and west and north and south. CCP as all past national governments struggle with all the regional independent economic environments. Chinese are big savers, basically because until recently good were exported, salaries low so internal consumption low. Also the CCP limited where saving can be place to real estate. And the national governments driven debt is in creating selected industries. Local government debt is to pay everyone a living wage, make work. The critical debt for the citizens is the building of housing to make work that they purchase with savings, however; the demographic clearly is in the direction of needing less housing in the future and the downward population has started. The local government poorly regulated the construction so much of the purchase housing of speculation is not high enough quality to be usable or is just a shell. So the local government isn't payed back as the citizens realize the falling housing prices is a poor place to put savings.
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Hi sir, yes as I live the last 5 year in HK and original been from Europe, aswell been 2 years in china, I can and do agree 👍 with many items you brought up,, but if talking about risks,, I think US and it's unacceptable mind of china growing and becoming a leading empire is a biggest risk,, trying everything to do In any sense, is ofcourse a human behavior in the way of not accepting power etc to been moved away from you,,, and I think personal that china should not bite to the fish bait throw out by the US if not at all, but yes that's not easy,, but I do think that US also if own decline is again a major risk to china,, but US I think is a major risk to china
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CPP may collapse in China. China has 5000-years history scriptures, 'Developing' is main frame of those record no matter who govern in China. Good governance and bad governance is important for Chinese decide to support or not their government, CPP is presently most effective & efficient compare to the government of past. Every time we talk about China opportunity , but have we think about that why those opportunity not happen in other part of the world.
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Gordon Chang has no intellectual integrity
😂you have persuaded me... China is about to collapse😂😂😂
The one who wrote about failing of China is not or has not Govern China 😊
I think the traditional productivity approach is not very helpful. You want healthy people and not mega spending in health care. GDP says nothing about the quality of spending.
10:53 - almost 20 trillion in GDP (btw., in which currency)? This is probably the most highly inflated number. The institutions, that issue any economy data from within China are all government or party controlled. There is no independent institution, that either checks these numbers or releases numbers by itself! Even Li Keqiang didn't trust his country's number, when he still was province gouvernor of Liaoning. There have been several attempts form economy research institutions from around the world trying to get a better understanding on the real economic data about the Chinese economy and all of them found, that the Chinese economy is at most 60% of what it claims to be. Some go even so far as to say it is not higher than one third of the official number.
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Ref to Peter Ziehan & Nick Glinsman for a down to earth view
A Plan to End Chinese Unemployment As China transitions to high technology it will struggle to maintain low unemployment. Low tech, low skill manufacturing will be outsourced to Pakistan and other developing nations. China will still enjoy access to low cost goods even if they are not produced domestically, but low skilled manufacturing jobs must be replaced with different occupations so that China does not experience a financial crisis. Retirement will reduce the size of the workforce but that alone will not be enough. Every high-tech job offering high wages can be expected to generate four additional supporting jobs in the community. Those four jobs may already exist in China, but those are jobs that will not be exported. The next phase of the Chinese economy will appear to be a shift toward services much like the transition which took place in the USA beginning in the late nineteen-sixties. Unlike the USA, China is not operating a global racketeering operation to drive the sale of paper currency so it will not be able to sustain the Chinese economy with keynesian economic policies. Although China should continue to develop militarily to discourage war, a policy of direct competition with the USA would have devastating consequences for every global economy, especially China. The USA has already begun a cold war with China and many of her people have expressed their intent to stop the growth of China. Although that policy will hurt the USA, it is also hurting China so the Chinese people must adapt to the new situation. Rather than mirroring the USA, China must outshine her. The USA serves the interests of a wealthy plutocracy which exploits and perpetuates global poverty. She employs more than 2,500,000 people in entertainment to convince the world that the USA is actually a paradise. The news agencies and the schools are staffed with journalists and historians who fabricate propaganda and lie about the real nature of the USA. Even the philosophers and economists contribute to the myth. Religion is also used to subjugate people with low expectations and to passify them with unseen miracles. The Chinese cannot directly counter these lies because people in every nation have grown up believing them. China can and must generate a new propaganda of global peace and prosperity by inspiring the people of every nation to develop their own local economy through global trade and cooperative business. Some have claimed that the current rate of unemployment among the youth in China is 20%. If that trend expanded to the whole population there could be 282,400,000 people in China seeking employment. The real number should be much lower. The actual unemployment rate of 5.5% means that 55,000,000 of the roughly 1 billion working age people in China are unemployed. That is clearly better, but it is vital for the wellbeing of China that everyone is gainfully employed. At a monthly rate of $3000 per worker the annual combined revenue required is $10,166,400,000,000. The Chinese could solve their unemployment issue by creating 1,448,205 communication jobs for Chinese people in each of the 195 nations on earth. An unprecidented network of Chinese philosphers, investors, administrators, researchers, writers, professors, and producers can profitably promote local actors, engineers, and workers in every nation. By disseminating the skills and the vision people everywhere will be inspired to help one another as they go to work building profitable local industries. When the people of every nation finally enjoy comfortable lives with fulfilling social activities and every worker can afford to support a family then the temptation to accept exploitative wages and to operate selfishly will be dramatically reduced. The key to Chinese prosperity is global prosperity because when all wages rise then Chinese wages will not fall. Naturally, promoting global prosperity must also be followed by delivering benefits for all. Schools should not be used to trap students in debt. Degrees and grades should not be used to isolate the haves from the have nots. Merit should be rewarded, but the lack of education should not doom anyone to poverty. Academic failure should reflect as poorly on the institution as the student. Human nature should not be portrayed as a dog eat dog competition. And, without neglecting environmental considerations, the abundance of the earth should not be portrayed as a treasure so limited that everyone must fight to avoid starvation. 195 nations present 195 laboratories and by a combination of ingenuity and experimentation the world will discover multiple formulations for global economic progress. Every society can make rapid advancements when there is a belief in the potential of the society and a will to invest. The differences between nations which identify as capitalist or communist are exaggerated. Problems arise when the funding is withdrawn by selfish participants. Capital investors prefer to never allow any competitors to gain the purchasing power that would enable them to become rivals. Global prosperity is the only answer, but the path from global poverty to global prosperity is the missing solution. The Chinese have positioned themselves for a bright future, but they also appear to be just as selfish and nationalistic as the citizens of the USA. People everywhere are susceptible to selfishness and tribalism even though it is self defeating. Now that the greater world powers have decided to push China down the Chinese people must look beyond themselves and go out into the world so that they can uplift it. A stong military will be needed to avoid a hot war, but honorable armies do not accumulate wealth. A new idealism will also be needed. The Chinese worked hard for a generation but now they have crested the hill and discovered that the western capitalist myth was a lie. Western style socialism will benefit the wealthy but a global socialism must be designed to benefit the world. I believe the Chinese can inspire the world with a vision of global prosperity and limitless opportunity. The USA has the most effective propaganda network in the world, but I believe China can craft a more compelling narrative. I hope the Chinese decide to create a robust network of historians and journalists and entertainers to inspire the people of every nation and every spoken tongue. The goal of such a network wouldn't be to campaign against the west or in favor of China because that message would fall on deaf ears. Rather, the goal would be to save the Chinese and all other people by holding up an acheivable fantasy that engages everyone emotionally and moves the people to cooperate for higher wages for childcare providers and better childhood opportunities. Children didn't choose this life but if we make them rich then they will grow up with the skills and the opportunity to make everything better. There is no reason to accept poverty on earth. If childcare is properly funded then all workers will demand proper pay. A global increase in wages will swell economies with new consumers and create jobs for everyone who has the will to work. The will to work will be sustained by businesses that pay enough for the growth of families. Employers will pay proper wages when workers decide that they would rather die than allow another child to grow up stunted by poverty. People who provide greater value will enjoy greater wealth but a healthy society will still ensure that children have opportunities and the unemployed have enough financial security to either retire modestly or bargain for honest work and proper wages. There isn't any need to eat the rich or to fight. The earth will sustain us all.
Thank you for sharing great opinions.
Great overview as always - and overwhelming numbers of topics to comment on. On the issues of Low Pop Growth, productivity, and unemployment - my opinion is these three are kink in one system. It is a dynamic system and should not be disused as separate factors. Too involved to discuss in comment section. But to provide an example , look at a 2 factor system like filtering dirt out of air. A filter is very inefficient when new, but as more dirt accumulates the filter get more and more efficient until it is so efficient that no air can pass through. The trick is to find that compromise point at which both factors are most efficient in the system. This is what the Chinese government with it's engineer and economic experts as head of government is very good at - dynamic balancing. Unlike China, the West is very bad at dynamic balancing.
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A system with capitalist methods but socialist ideals
No....but america will and is collapsing. Mainly capitalism that collapses every so many years. But China has been able to manage capitalism thru communism. 😊
If it works don't fix it.
China is the richest country and will not collapse
All the books talking rubbish. Here are the 2 points why china would not collapse in coming future; 1) High household savings rate. According to the news from Reuters dated 11/5/2023; total yuan deposits stood at a near record 274 trillion yuan ($40 trillion) at the end of April. 2) Self-sufficient nation. General speaking, china only need to import oil and gas, iron ores, and raw minerals in huge amounts
You should also ask, Could US fail? Will Biden fall?
It is no longer what you wishes
You forgot that on order to get sophisticated chips you need a concert of countries. Without one the sophisticated chips can not be made. You are too easy in terms of the Taiwan threat. Blocking the Strait of Malacca will destroy China. Remember what happens to Germany now for not laughing at Trump. USA will destroy Russia first not by sanctions but other methods then China is next. Japan and Australia are getting ready. But the problem is not deindustrialization of China but also if Germany and the end of European Union as we know. Pay attention to Sweden, Poland and the alliance with the US. This video is typical Belgian European talk. I lived in Europe and I know your ideological thinking is never realistic. Only dreams.
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China put itself in a economic bind with over building their domestic complex problem properties then they had to invest in foreign Land Development to bail their own economy out but they keep spending on technology and space so fast that they're in a low cash problem
Wonderful analysis, so far the best I have ever seen. There are two societal risk points in my opinion might worth add to this. 1. The unbalanced economy structure of China does not support a long term sustainable growth as an developed economy to be number 1 in the world and the largest middle income population, saying non-manufacturing and non-real-estate taking too little share of the total. Beside lower productivity in agricultural-ish as you mentioned, in my humble opinion, the lack of diversity of “services sector” is a bigger issue (e.g. entertainment, media&publication, sports, education, tourism, and many major proportion of private sectors as in a developed economy) is somehow deliberately ignored or even suppressed. The problem rooted deeply in the political/societal historical baggage. It is also interconnected with the unemployment risk which eventually urges openness to private sector. Although it is true that hands<minds in future factories, there still won’t be enough needs of mind unless a more diversified market economy. 2. Ability to maintain and attract talents and wealth is critical to the upgrade of the economy. However the propaganda machine has done a terrible job on that. Although I do think the fled of skills and money will eventually reverse, as I do believe China will be a new “garden in the jungle” for the global south.
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CAN YOU COMMENT ON THE FOLLOWING QUESTION? WHY CHINESE SCIENTISTS SENT A BILLION DOLLAR ROVER WHICH SOLELY DEPENDS ON SOLAR SOURCE OF ENERGY TO MARS, INSTEAD OF SUPPLYING THE ROVER WITH A GENERATOR WITH ITS OWN NEXT TO THE SOLAR ENERGY GENERATING SYSTEM OF THE ROVER? AFTER ALL THE ROVERS OF USA IN MARS HAVE DUAL ENERGY GENERATING SYTEMS? A SIMPLE STUPID MISTAKE BY THOSE SCIENTISTS WASTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHICH IS THE COSTS OF THE TAGNANT CHINESE ROVER IN MARS.
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2024: Time to tax a 10-30% wealth tax. (Beijing) West..... we can't do that because that's like socialism going around robbing wealth and will only cause people to stop innovating if they don't choose to flee. While the one-party system is somewhat more efficient when it works or does the right things; the reverse hand is when it creates a policy that becomes disastrous, and the damage is multiple times higher than may literally cost millions of lives. e.g 1 child Policy, Great leap forward (famine that took the lives of at least over 20-40 million), Zero Covid which not only didn't work but had caused even more long-term factory bankruptcy than most of the G7+ combine After seeing how Putin can command an invasion... maybe because he believes in his state's propaganda or he himself only receives filtered information that misleads him to risk the nation to play a game where Moscow will lose far more than it can gain. I think I rather like Finland/Singapore/Czech's governing system than one that plays All or nothing once every 1-2 decades.
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I hope so.
China is the only empire in the world which fail and rise many times and always hold its territory and never lose it as the other empires do or disappear . China will always survive decline and rise again they do this for over 5000 years They always emerge better 😂😂😂 fell that to Gordon Chang please ! 😂😂😂
If you have to actually make a video that tries to debunk the China collapse story, then indeed the end is nigh because you have nothing positive to report.
china will almost certainly not collapse. just grow quite a lot slower and probably won't ever surpass the Us gdp. but hopefully chinese living standards will keep improving.
Don't waste time on such unnecessary matters, your competence and confidence will be damaged
TAlk about China’s productivity being 1/4 of US or Western Europe, what about the productivity of an U.S. lawyer making ten times per hour than a lawyer in China? How do you compare that of a CPA in US with that of China? Should productivity be measured in terms the efficiency for product or service produced ? or price for rendering the product/ service?
He doesn't question any of the Chinese government issued data. Then draws he conclusions. Only time will tell not one more you tube expert that will almost certainly proven wrong.
Haha CCP is an enabler. Joke of the century 😂
china has been keeping collapsing since the 90s. nothing to see here. disperse.
there is no mass shooting every day in china that's there birth is low but the US has worse birth rate and dead rate
中国确实有相当多的问题需要解决，但是如果关注新闻的话每个国家都一样。 如果全地球都在比烂的话，我觉得按中国体量来说它还是会烂的慢一些
Translate to English
China, has a leader now who has surrounded himself with yes people. Other factions who were in the previous administration have been isolated, demoted or retired. So. This point limits the ability to problem solve in any form of govern. China is ran by the Han race, mind framing is occurring otherwise secret police would be all over the internet blocking counter thinking individuals or placing them under house arrest. A different issue China has a high issue with food production. Global warming has reduced the flow of five major rivers. They just completed a canal which runs 1000 miles to transfer water for cities and small farmers who's wells are going dry. There aquifers are rapidly being depleted and productive land is be lost to urban development ( computer chips use millions of liters of water to produce). Global warming is shifting precipitation patterns significantly so the best fertile land is being used for development! Taiwan issue is the U.S. Frontline defense to protect our trade routes of our allies. China already demonstrated how she will attack the Island. If China attacks Guam we will respond to China and most likely go nuclear within 3 to 4 weeks of the conflict. The coast provinces and the island Hainan near Viet Nam will be nuked with a estimated lost of 300 million people in China. Some how people think that That this issue will be pushed to the side. So Xi being a politician creature will most likely accept that results so he can write his legacy. Other point the Han Race has been around for thousands of years but China's regimes have collapsed numerous times! Genghis Khan ? For one? So it's not Impossible to see China slip downward! So many predicted Japan in the 70 and 80's??? Remember Demographics factors and a land issue cause Japan to stagnate. Now let's hope cooler heads prevail on the Taiwan issue. By the way our nuclear submarines are being shifting there forward bases in the Pacific. Oh India and China are NOT Friendly buddies otherwise Indian ICBM wouldn't have been built. You don't need ICBMs to reach Pakistan!!! China most likely go flat on development because of aging, young women prefer to stay single longer now. Food production will be a significant issue for China as OTHER Nations over global warming. Insects are arriving in other nations and there life cycles are evolving rapidly. They carry plant viruses. This is hardly ever discussed! Ok. I've said enough, problems are opportunities but it's our frame of mind and thoughts we create.
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Did he predict that URSS collapse?
China will not collapse!.but will go tru difficult times..history is d best report on it.
China knows they income been covering of spending before they spend the money to help others country.
China is also very efficient in harvesting
I agree with them china will collapse. just when it will happen, maybe in the next 1 million years or 1billion years, it will definately happen.
What about the lack of child bearing age females, and future growth?
Innovation is useful, not sure if productivity improvement is useful. China already deliver cheap good quality to the World beating the west. Productivity leads to less people with jobs and people needs jobs. Visually, when I walk around in Shanghai, Beijing, there are armies of cleaners, gardeners, security guards on all corner of building complexes, There are many many polices on the streets to keep everyone save. If you travel on the metro, there are armies of security personnel. These contribute to low productivity and is not useful for managing a secure, clean and orderly society.
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No system is perfect when humanity is involved. What matters is which group has the ethical resolve to TRY TO DO THE RIGHT THING in order to serve the people. China has made tons of mistakes costing millions of lives sometimes but it always learns from it; and more importantly, tries to fix it. The only reason China’s system may produce better leadership is that the rank and file of the party separates those with the greatest merits to advance to the top.
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😢😅😢😅😢😅 no..no...no...no.. u are right , collapse will happen in 100th years beyond !!!??? 🫣🫣🫣🤭🤭🤭😭😭😭🤣🤣🤣👍👍👍👏👏👏🙄🙄🙄🤔🤔🤔
今天崩溃论，明天威胁论，是不是患了精神分裂症？😂
Translate to English
Nope. Survive more than 5000 years
No worries, we Chinese can make babies when we want to.
Wow. Blatant propaganda channel. There’s so much wrong with this it would take an entire video to address all the errors here
Pascal, I think democracy is best in the world as people have freedom although they fight to rise however that will never given to Chinese & without free will & emotions, humans are not human but a robot so I afraid if Chinese robots will get emotions then CCP will fall but Chinese people will rise & rise 😊
Mr. Coppens offers fair and unbis analysis, but I would like to focus on some issues that are older population, high income as western style. In order to understand China one must understood China culture because it is a principle of CPC development for the people. It is a big mistake and ignorant as the western media bombard China more than dropping bombs into SE Asia. The US model economic development by fear, selfish, jealousy, and insecure. The Chinese development by the people who worked hard like everyone in the farms and urbans. Not rigid or random voted but by good record and reputation that is China progress for last twenty years without large internal conflicts. Older population is no problem, million young labor want to work in China. High income is dangerous to society when it fall into evil hands like the US, when corporations above the law that is the end of people and China is for the people, not for a few. China rater have social balance by middle income. That was why 800 m poverty has collapsed.
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China has a 20 trillion GDP??? Good joke there. If you believe any economic numbers coming out of China I have a bridge to sell you.
Please clarufy demigraphic issue. Will China encourage immigration to filll the gap in working age ppl? What will incentive ppl to emigrate? Salary, pollution, security autoratRian police?
You have not notice much Chinese millionaires moving out looking for better place for more convenient way of life
Do you trust chinas GDP figures???
Unlikely.
the coming collapse of china, Book by Gordon G. Chang, 2001
We all need to pull our countries together or we all going to fail.. we need to reunite into one work together n not wanting to fight over pennies god created all of us to be equal no one is better then anyone
Only if you believe in fairytales, go china 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇷🇸
This guy, is a big nxt !
What use of brain power without jobs??😅
Whether or not China fails or not depends on the decisions and their implementations. A pious person who submits his will to The All-Mighty's will receives the advantage of filtered decisions instantaniously with the signal of not-to-do for the wrong choice picked in mind before implementing them. From there on, it's the man's choice to obey or reject the absolute signal. To follow his instinct or practice self control. There is no match for the knowledge of All-Mighty Lord. The absolut advantage of the highest blessing is given to man as a method to use it by The King of the kings.
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All these coming from one person. Gordin the Clown. Yeyyyyyy.
Who is going to buy those gohst properties????
its literally got brics and buying up gold, it also found billions of gold reserves in its own country what a clickbait channel
The one who made any such general statements, is also someone who is totally childish in its thinking. Please be more imaginative and wide ranging in your thoughts and analysis. Failing in one exam does not doom your whole life altogether.
Riak of employment, food? Imprivement in agriculture?
Who do you work for? Chinese… right?
Hitting the "high income" standard requires including the billionaires. If you eliminate them, the average income including the rural farmers, is poverty-stricken . China has an energy, water and food shortage and that is a pretty serious problem, water being very serious.
Russia and china MUST don't exactly the same with what endmerica enter endmerica territory .
Middle income trap; not middle income gap.
Where did you popped in 😅
AI is a wildcard on the need of more brain powers.
Only a question of time.
The falling birth-rate can be solved by using artificial womb facility, currently there is one company ( Ectolife) doing it.
Insights from someone inside but foreign.
I don't doubt that you are very knowledgeable when it come to China, but you put that in serious jeopardy when you still believe that China "real" population is still 1.4b people.
That was four months ago
It will Collapse
Pascal Coppens 👍👍👍
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One most important risk, the biggest one missed out. No chance of getting out for China.
Paid propaganda from CCP
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💀 45 Nay 🔁 Neg 48 secret GandHi 💀?💀 RSS NatHuram Godse 🌊✂️🌊 LinKoln 🔁 Lut her 👑
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Tian xia xing wang, pi fu you ze!
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Not an informative report. But I wish China the best. Hugs ISH John ISH Ishmael
You describe a fascist state the same as the West
✌️✌️✌️🙏🙏🙏
Is like saying Gordon Chang is going to die in the next five years. If he doesn't then I will say is coming soooooonnnnnnnnnnnn. One day I will get it right.
In Romania este o vorba.Cainele moare de drum lung si prostul de grija altuia
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It's always good to hear contrarian views; however the case the other side makes is much more compelling. China has a lot of problems even if they had amicable relations with and the full cooperation of the West. It may not collapse in one dramatic sudden implosion, but it has peaked as the competition just from SE Asia alone is getting stronger. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines are all emerging markets. China's biggest issue is the alienation of the US which has decided to pull the plug on China and has very effective means to do so. Financial markets, chip technologies, even the potentially military control of China's food and energy imports. The US after all is who built China's growth and with a little time and recalibration if their own dependencies, can also bring it to an end.
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Excellent presentation showing many aspects of China many people are not aware of. It's pity they maintain aggressive territory expansion policy, hostage diplomacy, exporting opioids material etc. negative factors. If they soften up those, world would look up them with more warm feeling!
Did I hear it correctly ? US or China ? Tell that to Elon your no.1 idol and for majortiy Americans 🤣🤣🤣
What do you mean could? We’re watching it happen right now, in real time. ‘Make work’ projects do not equal prosperity.
Teach them a lesson
Never♥️🇨🇳💯
China is going to rule the world, and that is predicted many years ago. So don't talk stupid things.
hehe..everybody will Fail Miserably when the one Written in Revelation 16:18-21 will take place anytime..Be safe!.
Fun Fact: Tiawan has been an independent country and territory throughout history, except for 200 years between 1700-1900s. Part of this period was a Japanese occupation and WW11.
I think China's biggest problem is the 1.4 billion people. Very hard to govern, feed, provide for, unstable. To provide employment, China resort to low efficiency systems, do low value jobs, etc. The population should decrease slowly. I have no issue if India passed us in population and GDP one day. Can work out all other issues over time. Real estate bubble will be great in the long term. People will more likely have more kids. Invest in industry and technology, instead of bricks and motor.
😮Is it a good news to the world?😮
very biased reporting. Pascal forgot look back: which economic issue which Emperor Xi dealt with in the past 11 years did not turn into garbage?
The guy is trying to sell books based on what could happen. We all, in every country are at risk of worldwide failures. People are resilient, and have always overcome collapses
Happening right now, no thanks to tofu dregz governance 😂
Explain how great China is to Uyghur muslims..
Excellent information except 95% is incorrect, inaccurate or blatantly wrong.
I don't think he himself believes in what he says.
落霞与孤鹜齐飞，秋水共长天一色
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为人民服务 is the main goal of the CCP
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It appears that you are presenting a very positive outlook for China. That is not warranted by their actual progress, and potential problems.
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You just got to catch Winnie the Pooh with paw in the honey jar .
It's nice to have a different perspective.i don't agree with done of you conclusions I think you're greatly interested in meeting the effects of demography
Jacky Chen?
Just like how the United States stealing Russia’s money and kicking them out of Swift has caused a lot of nations to ditch the dollar… China’s overreaction to the pandemic has made investors worldwide skeptical. Businessman don’t see China as the stable place to invest as they once did, and countries like India are eating into that market. Those scars will take years to heal.
you need to travel and to see what is real and what is bubble.
Many thanks for a well detailed presentation. However, I submit that you have not framed the title of the presentation properly. Definitely a country as large as China and with such a large economy can never really fail. They may change dramatically, whether in a controlled or less controlled manner or even chaotic manner. That's practically axiomatic. The realistic title would have been "Will China be able to cross the Middle Income ceiling?" Or " Will China's Great Power Ambitions be fulfilled". From your own analysis my answer to both is NO.
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I don't see much of a lack of food where I live (Changchun). And their recent partnering with Russia should provide an abundance of resources in the coming years. The one child policy has resulted in many of the younger generation being spoiled and consequently lazy and doing as little work as possible. It's been seen as losing face to take menial work, although some don't have a choice. This is a massive problem for China. However, comparing China with the west (I'm British); here I see a government with massive problems which they are busily working to resolve. In the west I see governments pretending that there are no problems, whilst they spend their nations' wealth on unnecessary wars and supporting US hegemony.
China or USA?
Please STOP smoking in Technicolor. I do not see any common sense. Stop with grade 2 math.......
Are paid by the ccp?
Everyone is going to finish and back to God
Glory to Chaina
prefound and deep vision on china
No way, shakes come and only delay tha advance n not force collapse.
Robots don't spend money like workers do. I can drive a car through the holes in your commentary. Bicycle sharing. Failed, scammed. Same for EV Car share, total failure. Brain power is no use if it's wasted doing thoughts of Xi homework like they're aged ten! What a joke.
Jing ping listening you
Hello, 🌼🌷🌷🌻🌻May I share an Old Testament Verse with you from Daniel 7:14 "And there was given him dominion, and glory, and a Kingdom, that all people, nations, and languages, should SERVE Him; his dominion is an Everlasting dominion, which shall not pass away, and his kingdom shall not pass away, and His Kingdom that which shall not be destroyed." Also, can I share Isaiah 53:5 " But HE was WOUNDED For our TRANSGRESSIONS, he was BRUISED for our iniquities; the chastisement of our peace was upon Him, and with His STRIPES we are HEALED." God the Father loves you so much that He sent Holy Sinless Jesus (His Holy Son) to earth to be born of a virgin.Then, to grow up and die on a cross for our sins. He was in the tomb for 3 days, then Father God raised Holy and Sinless Jesus Christ (Y'shua) to Life! He appeared to people and went back to Heaven. We must receive Sinless Jesus sincerely to be God's child(John 1:12).After we get saved by grace through faith in Christ, if we truly love the Lord Jesus Christ, then we will obey Jesus(John 14:15). Mark 1:15 "And saying, the time is fulfilled, and the kingdom of God is at hand: Repent ye, and believe the gospel." Jesus said in John 14:15 "If you love Me, keep My commandments. "There's a real hell. It says in Revelation 21:8 "But for the cowardly, & unbelieving, and abominable, and murderers, & immoral persons sorcerers & idolaters & all liars, their part will be in the lake that burns with fire & brimstone..." Please sincerely receive Holy Jesus and put your true faith and trust in Him today and please repent. Will you have a Real encounter with Holy Lord Jesus (Y'shua is His Hebrew Name) and stay in a Genuine relationship with Him daily please?
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I think the US will collapse soon. 😅
Food water enerfy. Major ussue. Consider studying permaculure, hydroponics, verticle farming frim Israel.
oh, that banana! ha..................
Pinky pinky and the brain brain brain
A very good comprehensive talk by Gordon. You nicely cover a wide area. I personally do not believe that it will ‘collapse’ as it has a lot of capacity to absorb and a long way to go before it gets anywhere that other poor countries are and where itself was some decades ago. However, I believe that it is overstretching itself particularly in terms of territorial claims and in conflict with some 18-20 countries. Not to forget the debt traps that it is creating. It just requires a small spark to result in a major conflict. Economically the world is connected and it will only take a major debtor to collapse and default with consequences back onto China as one of the biggest creditors. Lastly, the lack of transparency and trustworthiness of China makes it difficult to know for certain it’s trust performance in terms of GDP but also it’s financial situation. Combines this with it financing marketing companies and journalists to publish positive articles and adverts about itself to counter its negative images. Despite all its affords to portray a positive image of itself, it’s overtly aggressive actions and illogical policies like zero tolerance on Covid meant bad news for companies putting all its eggs in one basket.
Those are just conspiracy theories you should be worry about Usa celling debt and banks going bankruped your raise in unenmployment rate There is your place of concern China in oart of Brics plus Block that will consist of Asia Africa South Central America trading with eachother i don t see the problem
Shouldnt lies..
中国加油
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下次给cia多拨一点款，也许能行
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CalCulTAR 🔁 new DelHi 🦆 PalkHiji. ( ?🐠 sharply blames on pedestrians no friendly "none membership "nor applicants
Will you make a video on how China has evolved over the last 5-10 years. There is a push towards more control. Also the role of Xi is worrisome. It just does not resemble the China of 10-20 years ago.
Another Gordon Chang LOL
2 cents CCP troll.
What about Brics and China?
YES. Dream-on ccp snowflakes. 🤣
There is a lot of hand waving going on here. So much of this video goes like this: 1) Admit there is a problem 2) Say China gov is aware of problem & will fix 3) ??? 4) Profit The main Chinese problem is that China's economy is built on exports, but its actions have spooked both western governments and businesses which have increased trade barriers and reduced spending in China. This is causing stress on the Chinese economy, which does not have a good answer because of their low consumption. That low consumption can't be easily fixed because it allows the high savings that are propping up the high debt. In addition, the middle income problem can't be solved by raising more low wage workers up. The issue is that the easy way to do that is with manufacturing jobs, but those are the jobs that are leaving China for other countries with lower wages and friendly business environments. That's why building up high end jobs is important to continue growth. High end jobs are the jobs that take over as a growing country loses low end jobs to less developed countries. China has stumbled in transitioning to these high end jobs, and looks to be backsliding.
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What a difference two months beings deflation, weak currency another building company on the verge of collapse shrinking population over 20% youth unemployment collapse in imports and exports , every capitalist country goes through recession China is no different it will be an interesting year ahead for China
All you did the whole video was say I see this as a huge opportunity. Duhhh... humans don't have the ability to fly yet.. however we invented planes there for I see this as a huge opportunity.
2000 to make super Cooper transmission car
is this paid for by China?
I agree mostly with your insightful presentation. I am persuaded that under normal circumstances China should be able to solve most of its problems. My concern however is one that is spiritual, some might call it one of religious freedom or a disregard for the power of God. More specifically, China is refusing to recognize The church of Jesus Christ of latter-day saints. It took no less than the break up of the Soviet Union, when the USSR refused to recognize that church; I fear China might be courting the same fate if they refuse to recognize this church. Thank you.
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Simples mate - answer no.
China's growth process has followed that of Japan. Growth by investment until your country can no longer absorb the investments. I think China had reached that point. They will follow Japan down the path to stagnation
when is jesus coming to save the world?
It's all of because Xi Jin ping
Has been decades the west n their dogs saying China is going to collapse till today.😂😂
will china fail is no more a questain. it when and how hard it fall
ประเด็นคือ ข้อมูลงจีน มัก มีข้อสงสัย และ อาจไม่ตรงคว่าจริง
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Yes but long after you have died.
Chinese propaganda
Your basing 🇺🇸 GDP w mostly printed paper,so its not the biggest in reality
Local debt + housing bubble, its different this time. If u look at recent leaked videos, teachers are not paid for 7 months, buses route stopped because the bus drivers arent paid for half a year. Do u know why people are buying electrical wheelchairs now? Thats right, electrical wheelchairs. Its because their electrical scooters keep getting fined and towed for no reason. How do u know when a governement is out of money? When they cant even pay their electrical bills. Its happening, and i know the wiggle room is super tight on this one.
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China is presently about the CCP. As the speaker inferred the CCP is not about it’s people or the well being of China
Pascal seems to say many misleading or at the very least strange things. He talks about green capacity and how China has added somewhat less than one terrawatt (1,000 gigawatts) in The Last 5 Years. A quick check shows that China used over 7,000 TerraWatts last year so all their Green Technology is but a drop in the bucket. Pascal also mentions social reforms, while China did allow more open markets for a Time they have since reversed course;thus, of late, social reform has been going in the wrong direction. Another dubious idea is spending many resources training senior citizens for new jobs, but training older people is notoriously hard, productivity at this age begins to significantly drop off and finally the life expectancy, say 10 years, is not long enough to recoup any real return on the investment. His whole video seems full of fanciful ideas like these. Finally, Pascal often mentions China will do this and China will do that, but China is an authoritarian country with an extreme concentration of power in the hands of one man, Xi Jinping. Pascal's belief that China's economy can be effectively run by one person is the most far-fetched of all his ideas. It's almost like Pascal is a stooge of China and all the positive comments are made by Bots.
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@Pascal 👍👍👍 @dryeoh2023 😂😂😂👍👍👍
more chinese propaganda
How will China deal with the 24 trillion USD debt of local communities and cities? That is almost as much as the US federal debt.
Brought to you by the ccp.
A lot of the so-called "pro China" channels are by westerners who had lived for a good number of years in China. Fortunately for them, they had good experiences during their time there due to the Chinese admiration for white people. If the foreigners are black or brown-skinned, living among the Chinese people in China would have been a much less than pleasant experience.
Does this guy watch other China channels or at least read the reports coming out of China about its internal problems? I think not, the situation in China is getting worse an there maybe predictions in the past but allot of predictions don’t get it right on the timing. China has serious financial problems regarding real estate and infrastructure projects, high unemployment, not enough job opportunities to go around, energy problems, droughts, flooding, food shortages, businesses closing and leaving the country, no new foreign investment, depopulation, lots of retired old people with no pensions, low marriage and birth rates, banking problems, people who are in debt and don’t pay taxes. That’s all I’m adding because there is so much more occurring that doesn’t get brought up to make millions of Chinese want to flee the country for the west and other Asian countries.
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Just bad publicity for a probably bad book. Why so much teaching and repeating oneself, like a teacher's lecture in kindergarten?
Full of biased bull
😂shill The ccp will take their citizens money 💰 whenever they want 😂
😂😂😂😂 Wow Great spin 😂😂😂😂 Info for ostrich folks
One sided talk, propaganda.
Good analysis. I think its very optimisitc with lots of "what ifs". China has become a dictatorship. Patriotism doesnt favor that. Open markets dont favor that. Lots of companies are leaving china. They lie about their GDP. China is built off of "made in china" and thats changing.
You live in a cave?
Valuationn in jealousy
could be but she will fall the last.
Could China failed you Sydney Australia 🦋🦜🐫😭🔥🔥🖤🐕‍🦺♿
Is this CCP proponga?
will usa collapse?
You must be well paid.
Pull your head out of your deriere
He talked most nonsense
While I appreciate an honest attempt to bring balance to the discussion, this is not it. Pointing to dynamism and system flexibility that existed in the 1980s and 1990s, but which has largely disappeared now, is not an indication of continuing flexibility. To suggest that Chinese government is substantially technocratic was true, but it isn't now. The supremacy of Xi has guaranteed that as the technocrats have been purged. And all this on the first point made, oh well, I got to 15 minutes...and already plenty of 'black box' remedies courtesy of the CCP. Nah, this goose is cooked. disappointing.
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WHY DO YOU CARE ?? Paid perhaps?
客观评价没有阴谋论的还是美流量
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Little too much BC. 👎👎👎
This guy is tripping 😅
China won't fail. The CCP very well could. Maybe the Twainese government could make the mainland work. One things for sure , chna has to get rid of XiHitler.
Good propaganda
Vous êtes sponsorisé par la Chine ?
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Yeschinainvadingothercountriesforpowerwillcollapse24tibet25singaporesrilanka26pakistanindia28bangladeshtogetherwillmakeitcollapse
Nonsense no country is too big to fail. Witness the Roman empire. Or Persia. Or the Ottoman empire. Will they? Who knows. But it is indeed possible perhaps even likely.
I listen to most of it, but I can’t listen to you anymore …
Buuuuuu
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Unfortunately you gloss over real time facts like the issues don't exist or are laughably insinificant. 75% of grass root local investment is in property. The developers are way over invested in land versus actual structures completed. What you consider normal isn't at all. Paying a mortgage for well over a year before being able to actually move in is diabolical. Gdp is entirely based on export because local wages are cheap however conversely those very wages cannot stimulate internal gdp growth. Your age issue view is again glossing over reality. The very reason the west needs immigration is to stimulate localized spending. The east has close to zero immigration hence no shoring up of localized spend. 26% of youth with university education cannot find employment today and this is growing exponentially. There is no collapse in China. Disaster click bait makes money on all media platforms however there are real issues which cannot be ignored. The west has no less disastrous challenges although just demographically different
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Ŵhat brain power..the graduates CANT FIND THE APPROPRIATÈ JOBS... 25:17 25:18 È
This is just Chinese Propaganda … LMAO 😂
INDIA SUDDENLY NO. 1 IN THE WORLD BECAUSE AMERICAN FREEDOM DEMOCRACY INVESTMENT SUPPORTED 😛😄😝😜🤣😀😂😆🤪😁
China has already failed. They arent free
27attackingtaiwanaftercapturing7asiancountriespowermongerwillcollapse
Who is drinking your Cool Aid,
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