Monday, November 11, 2024

Netizens Comments: If US/SWest start a war in Taiwan it will be sorely defeated by China.

 

What Everyone Gets Wrong about China Invading Taiwan

669K subscribers
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1,232,191 views Aug 3, 2024
For a decade, Western countries feared the rise of China and what they would have to do to stop it. In the last few years, though, their concerns have reversed. Now the problem is a declining mainland, and what the leadership in Beijing may do with Taiwan it loses the power to do so forever. But so much that surrounds the conflict is misunderstood: from what causes wars in the broadest sense, to China’s desire to capture Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, to why the United States would want intervene to protect Taiwan, to whether China has the numbers necessary to pull off the feat, to the destruction of dams, to why exactly demographics are working against China, and to how nuclear weapons will shape the conflict. This is what everyone gets wrong about China invading Taiwan. 0:00 Introduction 1:50 Faultlines 7:23 The War Puzzle 12:19 The Rise of China 16:45 The Decline of China 25:12 Invasion Plans 32:47 Demographic Deficit 40:42 But Would They Really? 55:24 'Murica 1:03:12 How the United States Would Intervene 1:11:12 The Nuclear Dimension 1:16:39 How to Stop a War The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Follow along using the transcript.

William Spaniel

669K subscribers
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3,958 Comments

Eng Lam Yeo
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1:24:00 I feel like the woman's shirt in the bottom left corner is a microcosm of everything in this video.
742
Greetings, Political Will ;-). I send my regards from Poland. Such extensive content must have required a great deal of effort on your part. I wish you continued growth for your channel! ;-)
433
I use YouTube as a replacement for tv and streaming services and have been doing so for 15 years, and your videos are the ones I look forward to the most because they have a lot of substance and I actually learn from them instead of just consume here and now information. Cheers William
215
As a undergraduate War/IR/Security studies student, I wish you were one of my lecturers!!! Love the small injections of humour, the great pacing and presentation, and the density yet clarity of information. You get done in an hour and a half what most of my lecturers take multiple 3-4hr classes to cover. 100% going to be using some of your works in few of my assignments!
27
"When the balance of power favours you on the long run, then everyday that passes by is a victory. " Gave me Ther Art of War vibes.
485
1.5 hours? Wow this is a doctoral thesis and not a YouTube video. I'm impressed 😮
2.1K
The funny thing is, I have thought some of your videos as too short, maybe too jokey. This one, by comparison, is an excellent analysis into the full depth of the Taiwan situation. Thank you for making it!
105
"An aging autocratic leader of a large country..." "Do you have any idea, how little that narrows it down?" (Batman Beyond) 😅
2K
Conducting a successful amphibious landing is one of the hardest things you could militarily attempt. Fighting offensively on a mountainous terrain is the stuff of nightmares. Conducting an amphibious invasion of a mountainous island would be hell on earth.
533
THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT AND THE MOST INTELLIGENT VIDEO EVER MADE ON YOU TUBE! WHY? BECAUSE THIS AFFECTS EVERYBODY AND EVERYBODY IS WORRIED ABOUT IT!
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a long one, he's spoiling us today
292
who needs movies when William Spaniel drops a 1.5 hour video?
316
I would normally spend all day on a Saturday playing Overwatch or some other game, but I have been watching William Spaniel's videos for about 4 hours now. I Really enjoy your videos dude. Keep it up!
2
I cannot think of a better use of 1.5 hrs. Everyone here respects your work and dedication to keep us informed. Good job and many thanks from Australia
75
I think this was the longest video I’ve ever watched straight without a break on YouTube. I am not much of a history buff or a military strategy person, however, I find the background, presentation, logic, and conclusions that the author reaches to be intriguing... Indeed, it reminds me of being in an auditorium, watching a professor, bring to life, facts and events in the most interesting and relevant way that otherwise would have been so easily glanced over. This channel is of the very, very best of YouTube! Much much thanks to the LoM Team!!!
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81
Incredible. Who are you!!?? How did you put together such an amazing video. Great narration.
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BABE WAKE UP, WILLIAM SPANIAL JUST DROPPED A 90 MIN VIDEO🗣️🗣️🗣️
505
This was a great video and rationally explains many of the pressing issues. One additional factor that I would also point out is the value of the “Taiwan Issue” for domestic Chinese policy. It’s no coincidence that there are heightened tensions or military exercises near Taiwan when there is domestic trouble in China. Taiwan effectively serves as a tool for Beijing is ramp up nationalist fervor and support, and can be helpful for distracting from domestic issues. As such, there can also be a vested interest in Beijing continuing to kick the can down the road to maintain this helpful domestic tool as well.
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168
Fun fact. D-Day ONLY had between 4,000 - 9,000 casualties. That is incredibly, unbelievably low for such an invasion. It's absolutely mind-boggling how they managed that so successfully.
59
Amazing and in-depth. I love how you switch perspectives to give a 360 view of each problem and potential solution. Really great analysis.
44
EXCELLENT analysis. Top 5 piece on this topic I’ve seen, and I’m still not giving you enough credit. Truly so thorough and well done. Thank you.
47
Love the venture into longer form content, even if it took me over a week to find the time to actually watch it (and even then, had to split it over 2 days of work). A topic as vast as this definitely deserves the length though. Very informative and even though I already knew many of the facts you pointed out, the way it was put together gave a very interesting perspective that does a good job of cutting through the fearmongering that's so prevalent. A bit of feedback on this style of long-form video: one thing that occurred to me a couple times is that it would be really nice if it was less dependent on visuals. I.e. something that could I could listen to while driving (or working) and still have a good understanding without having to watch the lines on maps to understand what you're talking about and which lines are where in the tradeoffs. I mean, the point might get across fine as-is, but not sure.... just thinking about it for if you ever do more long-form content like this. I think the shorter-form 20 minute videos are fine as-is, but that would've made this 92-minute video more accessible for me.
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Curious from a “creator” pov, what makes you release a 1.5 hour video over several 10 minute ones? I don’t mind either, just curious how YouTube treats them differently
121
Minor correction, if you consider 5:1 , it's not just a ton of soldiers, it's 636.492 tons of soldiers, considering the average Chinese man weights 69.6kg :D Joking aside: Love your vids. From analysis, to being impartial, mathematical, logic, and packed with humor. I have OCD and subscribing is a chore, cause the red dots on new content grind my gears until clean. How ever, I have subbed today.
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24
This is such a well put together presentation!
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"Lines on maps are more important than circles on planners"
145
Honestly, your previous videos didn't cut it for me. This one, however, hit the nail on the head. Very well put together. Your bullet point on the major issues confronting a would be aggressor helped spell out Beijing's problems in recouping Taiwan's golden goose. Very much enjoyed this. I'll subscribe.
57
This is really good stuff. I am like envious. I knew the depth of Alaskan coastal waters form the Bering Strait to the Aleutians but I did not know about the depth of the ocean around Taiwan. Blew my mind.
1
I live in Taiwan, this analysis is actually very accurate! 😅😅 That is why people in Taiwan is never alarmed by these china threat. China's purpose is unification not wipeout the population so a bargaining deal is always in the air.
183
Bro really outdid himself this time: 1 hour and 30 minutes of content is like a generous gift.
68
What everyone gets wrong about China invading Taiwan: Despite Taiwan being a Island nation. There are still... Lines on maps.
296
Mr. Spaniel, Fantastic introductory overview to the complexities and history involves in China's calculation to invade Taiwan or not, A Treatise from beginning to end. I hope you do many more such deep Dives. I already knew a lot about most all the Dynamics involved, yet still learned a fair amount of important details and each stage of the game. Also how you string it together and apply some Game Theory ads a great Personal Touch of value. Thanks a bunch and please keep up your awesome work. I follow you weekly.
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10
This long form video is the most informative thing ive seen so far in better understanding the situation, i learned a ton!! Thank for putting this together!!
5
Man, that was intensive. I had a small pause for a coffee and came back to watch until the end. Many thanks, Mr. Spaniel!
35
Taiwan's president, in an interview with CNN, talked about Taiwan's strategy. “What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China,” she said. So it's basically the same strategy as Ukraine.
95
Crisis brought on by the complexities of the issues we face...patience is key!
2
Some of the best content I've seen. Masterful, insightful, and so well produced and presented. Thank you, William Spaniel!
9
It's 11pm here and I thought "Oh a typical 9 minute video from William! I can watch that and go to bed." I was wrong🎉
130
Cracking analysis on a very complicated situation with an in depth knowledge few share. Many thanks for a well produced and informative video.
1
You weren't kidding about the length!
74
Very informative and interesting. It’s so gratifying in this day and age that I can come to YouTube and feed my curiosity about world affairs. I’m 74 years old and did not have this luxury when I was growing up. Bravo to young folks who have it now. When I was young there was little resource with good answers such as this video provides. Thanks to the author and tour the technology that brings us closer to understanding everybody’s differences and similarities. I hope that someday this will bring more peace to our planet. Kent/Montana USA
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4
Thank You! That was an outstanding video, you out did yourself. There's clearly a lot more to consider than I realized before watching this. I appreciate all your effort.
1
Great analysis but one thing I hope to address. Yes, Republic of China still claiming sovereignty over mainland. It's written in constitution and we have no way to change it. But No, no one in Taiwan actually has the intention to reclaim it. Declare war, take over mainland, that's never gonna happen. It's another thing "Everyone Gets Wrong". Most of the analysis video when talk about this, always sounds like feel both sides has the reason to invade each other.
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129
Great! All weekend now set! William on Saturdays, Perun on Sundays. Thanks for the content!
21
Brilliant. My aging brain only got lost when the lines on maps and speed of dialogue left me swimming. You have provided an extremely valuable overview of the issue, and congratulations on the result and the gift you have made to humanity.
1
“See store for details.” Had to pause to read it. Love it!
26
Wars aren't initiated by the thoughtful "calculation of adjusting lines on a map"(theoretically or practically)... Wars are initiated by "miscalculation"!
6
That was fantastic! What a production, and a great script and analysis of all (or at least a bucketload) of the issues. I really liked the various asides and call-outs to other historical and military precedents. And just general scholarship on many topics. Great work!
1
The reason why there are always people who think that the tactics of landing warfare are still the same as they were 80 years ago is because drone swarms can only be used for artistic performances or rocket artillery with a range of 300 km can only be used as fireworks displays😅
49
Great job on this - really enjoyed how you laid everything out. Apologies it took me soo long to get to it. Thanks again.
3
Thanks for this video. Your method and explanations gave me a much greater understanding of the complexity of international affairs.👏
1
It was great to have such a long video really taking a deep dive in to all aspects of the situation. Thank you for putting the time in to making this video.
4
I work in the fed space and I've shared this video with my team. Thanks.
39
As someone who is into geo politics for about two decades I really enjoyed this video. Covering a multitude of aspects regarding this issue is no easy task and neither is explaining them. You made the complexity of the issue understandable for a broad audience. Kudos for that!
This explains a lot about the conflict that I had no idea about and overall makes a good bit of sense to something that (at a high level) is hard to make sense of. Thanks!
4
Best video to date! Really enjoyed the extended format
4
This video was amazing. Thank you for being a genius that knows how to explain complex issues into layman's terms.
1
Great work! For my part, watching it was time well spent!
8
what a fantastic comprehensive video! Thx William
8
I love your videos and your commitment to sticking to the facts. Thanks!
1
An excellent detail professional analysis of the complicated and difficult situation👍❤️
2
An hour and thirty minutes? Why you gotta drop this right before I was about to go to bed my man!
39
The United States single handedly defeated the Japanese Asian super Power ín in WW2 to protect Chinese independence and we will and should protect this Democracy in the Asian world from being forced into Communism in which Taiwan has never lived under a communist regime and that's why it's one of the richest Asian countries in the world.
3
Ok gotta thank you for the video...I personally do not remember watching anything on YouTube that long....was worth it though 😊.... extremely deep analysis
1
No one has the right to change the current life style and government structure of Taiwan except majority of Taiwan residents.
7
Didn't even notice this was so long until you mentioned it at the end. Interesting as always.
3
This channel is similar to Asionometry in terms of style, depth of research, and delivery. I subscribed!
1
Dude. You absolutely crushed everything in this one. So informative, so well thought out, so well written. I can’t believe I spent my Saturday literally watching this entire thing. Bravo!
11
In my humble opinion, less time should've been used explaining how the balance of power may shift in the future, and more time should've been devoted to make two points more explicit: 1. Even at its peak, trying to invade Taiwan amounts to a political Russian roulette, with 4 bullets in the drum. Ask Galtieri about the Falklands. Ask Putin about the invasion of Ukraine. So, no matter how much the balance may shift in the future, president Xi is unlikely to take his chances in 2027, or whenever. 2. (Actually a consequence of 1). The current compromise is that Taiwan is independent in everything but symbols. China has essentially no say on how Taipei manages its money, or shapes the Taiwanese army, or enforces laws on the island. And the CCP has to deal with that status quo, no matter how much it nags.
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37
That was an excellent video, William. Thanks. Good thing too that I listen to all my videos and audiobooks at 2X speed
1
15 minutes into the upload, i decided to check how much of it was still remaining to watch. Holy cowabunga. 75 minutes more to go.
12
What a treat! An hour and half long vid of lines on maps!! 😁
31
Excellent work, dude. You take so much more into account than anyone else I've seen.
1
1:30 hour of a powerpoint presentation of international politics with bone dry humour. Love it.
7
A good analysis. Greetings from Taiwan!
3
Actually many Chinese from the Mainland are emmigrating to Western countries , thus making the China demographis worse, the real estate prices in Toronto and Vancouver Canada have skyrocketed due to rich Chinese fleeing their country.
2
I would love more long form content like this, thanks for this next hour and a half!
14
Dr. Spaniel, I sincerely hope your students who are now working in government paid attention in your classes. I appreciate the great effort and clarity you put into this video!
8
Very well done. You hit all the points.
1
Just reiterating it again. The solution to population collapse is NOT immigration. It is providing the citizens a life worth living and prospering. People LOVE having kids if they can afford kids easily.
19
The long format really allows for more investigation of possible outcomes. Very interesting. It went by quickly and left a lot to think about. Thanks.
5
I enjoyed your video. made a great deal of sense.
1
"It still causes world leaders to remember allied losses..." Except Rishi Sunak, he had more "important" things to do 😅
28
How have I not come across this channel before? This is cool!
1
Took me almost a week to get around to watching this, but it was worth it
3
A video that is over an hour long ? Just cleared my whole calendar, refilled my cereal bowl and ready to geek out!!!😮
9
I like both the short vids, and this mammoth. Do keep it up! :)
1
This was one of the best and most informative works i found on youtube for the year! Very well done! subscribed <3
3
No compromise or promise of limited sovereignty is possible. Hong Kong proves that.
8
Approaching bad ideas along the lines 'maybe this would be a good idea' (before demolishing the bad ideas) worked really well in a video having as it's aim, to explain complicated geopolitical factors to regular folks such as myself. Great work.
2
oh my we have been spoiled when you were teasing this i was expecting 40-50 min
16
Loved it!! More long format deep dives please.
1
The only criticism I have is that the missiles aren't filled with water. The implication is that the fuel is subpar
6
Amazing in depth analysis of the issue. Hopefully the support from the community makes the long format lines on maps worth the time and effort!
5
Phheeewwww I made it to the end ! Very good video !! I'm amazed by the work you did ! I can't imagine what it took to produce it. And to keep it interesting ! On the issue, I clearly do not know enough, and I rely on balanced and sincerely thought out videos such as yours. Thank you very much. But on your channel, it's your Ukraine videos that hook me ! I can't get enough of the Kursk spin off series ! They're great !!
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I've got to say, I couldn't imagine planning a war without watching at least a few William Spaniel videos.
3
I've had the impression that China's focus on EVs, and much else, is intended to become less dependent on overseas resources (like oil). China has enough coal, hydro, solar and nuclear, to make enough electricity. It's petroleum that it needs to import from afar.
7
Really enjoyed this video. Thank you
1
I slept for 4hrs and I came back to finish it
11
I didn't see misspelled countries... it was more like a moment of, "Wha? Are these real countries?" I remember (video just ended) zeroing in on St. Liuca, or whatever it was, and trying to figure out where that could be located, and then Eswhatini... and then, I glanced at the Beleze, and for a split second it was like the feeling of looking at a broken segmented LED display... and then you rearranged the letters, and the words became real country names. That was a surreal experience - thanks for that. I guess the video was pretty informative, too. I'll grant you that, and a thumbs up, in exhange for... IDK, another video in the not too distant future?
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Bravo, great work ! I'm a Taiwanese teaching geoeconomics in college and your video is one of the best geo-strategic analysis I've ever seen on the Taiwan-China issue. Definitely going to recommend this video for my students !
"reunify" is not the correct word. Taiwan was never part of the PRC, thus "re" makes no sense.
8
LOved it man. Amazing video Congrats.
4
Although I'm no expert on foreign policy, this video was a great watch, and it seemed to align with what I've been reading about the topic on my own. Great video!
1
You slay me with your reenactments! Thanks for the good info.
4
1 hour and 32 minutes of William Spaniel. Hell yeah!
6
This 80 year old experience under a Communist forum is failing for the people of the Main land
2
If you’re watching from Beijing “Ni Hao!” That made me lol 😂
8
TSMC is the single most important factory in the world. There are so much interest to defend it which alone would save the whole country. Planners in China are very stupid if they think customers of TSMC (which is you as well for sure) will let that factory stop. Oh, by the way China is also one of the biggest buyer of TSMC. Almost all journalist underestimates this grossly.
14
Your point about the end results of "one country, two systems" in both Macao and Hong Kong is instructive.
2
Fine analysis but the US would never allow any sort of Chinese control over Taiwan
6
Are you going to make a video about the prisoner exchange?
4
I got to work with some of these surplus Chinese men in San Francisco. I made fast friends with a few. SF is an international city with people from all over the world. People are people in my experience. These guys seemed particularly happy to be there.
1
at 11:28 you mention the Republic of China (Taiwan) hasn't declared Independence; Why would the ROC need to declare independence if it is already independent. Should the PRC declare independence from Taiwan, or do they also not do that for fear of war with Taiwan?
8
Learned a great deal about Taiwan geopolitics from your analysis, and I am a Taiwanese. Thank you!
1
Red Dawn was just ludicrous. Even us high school students laughed at it the time.
5
47:03 ...concrete, that are resistant to missile strikes... Where on Earth you got the idea that concrete is so resistant to missile strikes? Have you not heard of bunker buster munitions that can go several meters through concrete before detonating? Even from basic chemistry, you should know that concrete owes much of its hardness to the amount of water it absorbs. If you want really hard concrete, you keep adding water to it, day after day, as it cures. The more water it absorbs, the harder it becomes. But that comes at a price when it comes to heat. If you put a blow-torch to a wall of concrete, after a minute or two, a chunk of concrete suddenly explodes on your face. This is because at some point the water starts disassociating and forming water vapor. Now, have you heard of shaped charges? Those are anti-armor munitions. They look internally like a cone of copper with the tip pointing back. C4 explosive is ignited from the back and proceeds forward, causing the cone to progressively collapse, emitting a forward jet of molten copper traveling at hypersonic speed and having a temperature comparable to Sun temperatures. This jet passes through many inches of steel, easily. Doing something similar to that with concrete not only penetrates the concrete, but causes it to literally explode. Other than that, great video! EDIT: 1:02:25 ...Chinese subs could plunge down 13,000 feet... Uhm... Not in one piece. 3000 feet I believe is the depth limit for some American subs. I wouldn't even try 300 feet in Chinese one.
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l salute you Sir! Your commentary is thorough with huge depth of digging trueths in to the most recent modern history of warfares, particularly in relation to the US's INTRIGUING web of strategic military MEDDLINGS in the international political areana which rightly so is in horrific turmoil! Such regrettable resultant chain events of civil unrest and wars currently in many parts of the world should relent & stop! Global human beings have now suffered too much!
2
I wish you would’ve touched on Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept and how lethargic they have been in reforming their military procurement and doctrine. You paint a very grim picture for the CCP, but if Taiwan sticks to their doctrine, the PLA will likely be able to destroy the ROC armed forces on the beaches and march into the cities relatively unopposed. It doesn’t change everything in your video, but it’s worth mentioning because it completely changes the cost calculation for the CCP if they believe they can genuinely take Taipei in weeks or months rather than years.
4
China's attitude towards geopolitics really drives the point for me of how dumb war really is. Like, you're one of the biggest countries on the planet, with excellent infrastructure (sometimes far ahead of Europe or U.S.), good economical influence over the world, a decent military for defense, and the goods and high population morale that come out of peaceful times (in the country). Do you really need to risk damaging all of that to invade a neighboring island and bullying poorer asian countries out of their economic exclusive zones? Like, really?
6
Great video! Answered a few questions I've had for years. Still not going to pack my bags and move to Taiwan... I'll be waiting to see what you have to say about Ukraine's current jaunt into Russia. Oh - I just noticed you have already done a video on just that and posted it 39 minutes ago. 😃 You are really on your game!
1
Won't happen in near future. Japanese military is geared to help Taiwan. They understand that if China takes Taiwan there next. Once Japan is in USA is in.
5
In the 50s to 70s China was very poor, very weak, question was, why Taiwan did not declare independent back then? But now, Taiwan wants to become an independent country, don't you think it is very crazy and stupid on the timing.
5
I really like and enjoy your content. A video of this length just requires me to plan around it, which can be hard at times, but worth the watch. Thanks.
I would like to chime in, diversionary war is what people refer to because chinas economic problems thus xi will have no choice but to divert peoples attention. But the problem with this hypothesis is that it havent happen before when discussing china. There are many examples when china couldve used the rally around the flag effect on its populace but it javent. For example, when mao implemented his disasterous policy of the great leap forward , there was no diversionary war, in 1989 tienanmen protests, china still dididnt use it and many many orher examples, thus i think a diversionary war is very unlikely
7
One thing that you didn't mention is youth unrest in China, in relation to jobs and economy. China may be wealthy, but the employment rate among graduates is declining with many male students out of work. Blaming Taiwan is a powerful propaganda point Beijing can use to drum up support for an invasion.
3
All that equation arguing against China invading Taiwan was breathtaking. My son asked me about that possibilt. I went into the discourse with gusto after I heard ur lecture here. He fell asleep! Nonetheless thank you so much for educating me at least. Yes I stayed till the end of your discourse. One "like" is not Enough.
2
作为一个中国人，我有3个问题：1.美国的南北战争是入侵战争吗？2.如果德克萨斯州变成一个共产主义国家并且有中国驻军，美国政府会怎么做？3。世界上所有航道必须都由美国来控制吗？ As a Chinese, I have three questions: 1. Is the American Civil War an invasion war? What would the US government do if Texas became a communist country with Chinese troops stationed there? 3. Do all waterways in the world have to be controlled by the United States?
Translate to English
3
While I don't disagree with the points in the video, the major problem with most of them is that it's trying to assign a purely logical perspective to something that is not a logical issue for the majority of Chinese people anymore. Thanks to the CCCP's completely nationalistic China-first rhetoric, Taiwan has become a matter of honor and pride to prove that China is superior to the west. This mindset is actually now inherit to every single Chinese relationship with the US and the west, no matter what it is or what it takes, they have to be seen as superior. While this has been a somewhat common view in China, it's been ramped up tenfold since Xi took over. Not just against the US either, but the west in general as well as Japan and Korea. It's not uncommon for US and Japanese people to sense or even actually experience outright hostility in China these days.
5
Really great video! Learned a ton, didnt know about over half of the factors you brought up
1
Ahhh, I'm going to move to Taiwan next year... 😅 Well, here we go.
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Here are some other observations. 1) ISLANDER MENTALITY. Regardless of the resolution, those on Taiwan will want their own nation. Taiwan is far away enough from China and with sufficient population and economic size, her population will always feel that they are different from everyone else. No degree of assimilation attempts will make this go away. That is longer term China has no hope of holding on to Taiwan. Ask why Brexit happened. Same with why small island nations in South Pacific plus Australia and New Zealand are there. 2) HISTORY LESSON. HaiNan Island is a province just south of China not far from Vietnam. Similar in area to Taiwan but the 2 islands have different history vis-a-vis China. HaiNan Island was first brought into the Chinese empire in late 2nd BC. But China didn't claim Taiwan till 1683AD. Why the difference of over 1700 years? HaiNan Island is mere 40km from China. Taiwan is at least 140km away. Automatically it is far more difficult to take and keep control of Taiwan from China. Indeed in 1683AD, the then Chinese emperor was only reluctant to take Taiwan. He then issued edict banning formal migration from China to Taiwan. He knew if sufficient population, the community in Taiwan would ask for their own independence. HaiNan Island only has 8m vs 23m for Taiwan. HaiNan Island is no where as mountainous as Taiwan so more suitable for larger population but it does not. Why? Those fleeing from China know that Hainan island is too close vs Taiwan. In 1850~1864 Taiping Rebellion, it never reached Taiwan but arrived in Hainan island within a short few months. This caused one of the first largest migration waves to Taiwan. Ask why the emperor that took HaiNan Island didn't take Taiwan. The same question is for the 2nd of Sui emperors, the Tang dynasty, and the Mongols who were NOTORIOUSLY expansionistic. They all knew the difficulties in controlling Taiwan one way or another. 3) 100 YEARS of HUMILIATION For centuries, the rest of the world have had the concerns for the rise of China. Benefits of doubts were given to China from 1980 to these last few years. China has worked hard but without the assistance with capital, technologies and open market offered from the democratic world and indeed Taiwan itself, Chinese economy wouldn't have been in this current shape. But the moment China became well off, she threatens everyone and anyone. China basically is obsessed with the so-called 100 years of humiliation. It is the excuse used in all foreign policy settings and that in regard to Taiwan by China. China however doesn't accept that she has always been influenced by external parties. The Inner Mongolians were the lord of China from late 300's to mid 900's. Both great Sui and Tang dynasties were not Han Chinese. The forefathers of the Manchu took most of northern China in late 1100. Then the Mongols took it and they were in charge of all China till mid 1300's. The last imperial dynasty was Manchu in China for over 260's. For the last 2,000 years, China was under the rule of non-Han Chinese for more or less half of that period. At least, during the 100 years of humiliation, China was not totally taken by outsiders. China was right in BUYING OFF THE ENEMY during the 100 years of humiliation. Buying off the enemy had been the policy settings of dealing with the Monogols since late 209'BCE. The moment this wasn't carried out, China faced severe threats and indeed existential invasion. A huge country now and then is better off buying off the potential enemy than conducting wars that might or might not have the desired outcome. Indeed had China not overthrown the last imperial dynasty, it might have been in a much stronger position dealing with the international powers after WW 1. The last imperial dynasty was checked out due to this sense of humiliation in China. The fragmentation of China after the fall of the imperial rule weakened China further reducing her to nothing in bargaining in international affairs. 4) A war with trade blocked for China is a suicidal eventuality. China's reliance on raw materials would cripple her in the event of trade ban. Taiwan also would retaliate with missiles into economic infrastructure along the coast of China. China's economy would be permanently damaged. Then, no one would give China another chance. 5) The Chinese leadership is likely not representative of the greater community in China in term of dealing with Taiwan. Last year a survey commissioned by a US university and conducted by a reputable Chinese polling company indicates a high degree of willingness for Taiwan independence by the Chinese population. Over time, China and her leadership will likely let Taiwan go. It is not worth the fight. It's not worth the concerns. History is right that taking Taiwan is a mistake in the first place. So why not just let Taiwan go in full.
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An excellent dive into this issue covering several factors I had not previously considered. Thank you! Also, it's always fun reading some of the comments below videos like these.
A completely western take on Taiwan issue filled with common misconceptions and wishful thinking, which naturally leads to a conclusion that is dead wrong.
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William makes geopolitical conflicts, war economics and armed conflicts fun.
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Thanks a lot for this amazing video!
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Incredible work, William
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Great insight, Depth, well articulated details.
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Agree with your overall analysis (thankfully as I live here haha), top video. Length was good. Would love to see how we as a planet "strengthen" global ties as opposed to preparing for conflicts. Essentially a video on how we keep the peace that we have had going for seven decades. Showing where the path to global progress is for example.
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